#28 overall · BAL · 168.9 projected half-PPR pts · +39.7 Draft Value · Market ADP 33.1
Zay Flowers — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Zay Flowers has done something rare in his first three NFL seasons: he has grown every year. He caught 77 passes for 858 yards in 2023, 74 catches for 1,059 yards in 2024, and then posted career highs across the board in 2025 with 86 receptions, 118 targets, 1,211 receiving yards, and 5 receiving touchdowns. The three-year averages tell the same story of a high-volume target share: 114 targets, 79 receptions, and 1,042.7 receiving yards per season. That kind of consistent target volume is the foundation of reliable fantasy production, and Flowers has demonstrated it in each of his first three years. He also adds a modest rushing dimension, averaging 9 rush attempts and 58 rush yards per season over that span, with a rushing touchdown in both 2023 and 2025. The cumulative picture is a receiver who has earned a featured role and kept it.
What the model projects
The projection for Flowers is 168.9 half-PPR fantasy points. That output translates to a draft value of +39.7 points above replacement level at the wide receiver position, placing him at WR10 and #28 overall in Tier 6. The projection sits below his 2025 actual production, which is worth noting: his three-year average of 1,042.7 receiving yards and 4.7 receiving touchdowns per season provides the underlying context for where the number lands. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 179.5 points, slightly above the point estimate, which reflects the shape of his outcome distribution.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 108 | 77 | 858 | 5 | 8 | 56 | 1 | — | 165.9 |
| 2024 | 116 | 74 | 1059 | 4 | 9 | 56 | — | — | 172.5 |
| 2025 | 118 | 86 | 1211 | 5 | 10 | 62 | 1 | 3 | 200.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 114 | 79 | 1042.7 | 4.7 | 9 | 58 | 0.7 | 1 | 182.0 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band for Flowers is wide, which is consistent with a receiver whose season-to-season results have moved meaningfully in both directions. In a bottom-10% season (p10), he finishes at 91.4 points. The 25th percentile lands at 134.2 points. The median simulated season is 179.5 points. A strong season at the 75th percentile produces 213.4 points, and a top-10% outcome reaches 245.7 points. That is a spread of more than 154 points from the 10th to the 90th percentile. One factor that could weigh on the floor: Flowers lost all 3 fumbles he had in 2025, a fumbles-lost rate that is worth monitoring. The ceiling, however, is real: his 2025 season already demonstrated what the top of his range looks like in practice.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
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our projection
How to draft him
Flowers is ranked #28 overall and WR10 in these rankings. His market ADP, drawn from 2 platforms, is 33.1, which works out to pick 3.09 in a 12-team snake draft. That means drafters are spending a third-round pick to land him. His bye is Week 13, late enough in the season that it rarely disrupts playoff runs, but worth noting for managers in leagues where the fantasy playoffs begin in Week 14. At WR10, he fits comfortably as a second wide receiver in a two-WR build or as a strong standalone WR1 if you load up at other positions early.
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Questions drafters ask
Very consistent. He has seen 108, 116, and 118 targets in his three NFL seasons, averaging 114 per year. That kind of target volume has held up across three different seasons, giving him one of the more reliable usage floors at the position.
The 90th-percentile simulated outcome is 245.7 half-PPR points. His 2025 season, in which he posted 1,211 receiving yards and 5 receiving touchdowns on 118 targets, already shows what a high-end result looks like in practice.
Flowers lost all 3 of his fumbles in 2025. Over the three-year aggregate, he averages 1 fumble per season, so 2025 was an outlier in both volume and conversion rate. It is a real floor risk worth tracking, though his target volume and yardage production have remained strong throughout.
His market ADP is 33.1, which corresponds to pick 3.09 in a 12-team snake draft. If you want Flowers, the market says you are spending a third-round pick to get him.
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Beyond the rankings
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