#27 overall · HOU · 173.8 projected half-PPR pts · +44.6 Draft Value · Market ADP 21.4
Nico Collins — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Nico Collins has been one of the more consistent volume receivers in the league over the past three seasons. He has cleared 99 targets in each of the last three years, averaging 109.3 per season across that stretch. His receiving yardage has been equally steady: 1,297 in 2023, 1,006 in 2024, and 1,117 in 2025, for a three-year average of 1,140. He has also averaged 7 receiving touchdowns per season over that same window. That kind of floor, sustained across three full years, is the foundation of his case. Collins sits at WR9 with a draftValue of +44.6, meaning the projection puts him well above replacement level at the position. Tier 5 in a 12-team half-PPR format, ranked #27 overall, he is a receiver whose track record earns the projection rather than merely hoping for it.
What the model projects
The projection for Collins is 173.8 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits modestly below his three-year average production, which reflects the actual stat lines he has posted rather than any ceiling assumption. His three-year averages of 73 receptions, 1,140 receiving yards, and 7 receiving touchdowns on 109.3 targets per season give the projection a concrete historical anchor. He also carries a small rushing contribution: 2 rush attempts and 15 rush yards in 2025, with a three-year average of 1 rush attempt and 7.3 rush yards per season, plus 0.3 rush touchdowns per season in the aggregate. The point estimate of 173.8 is the headline number to plan around.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 109 | 80 | 1297 | 8 | 1 | 7 | — | 1 | 218.4 |
| 2024 | 99 | 68 | 1006 | 7 | — | — | — | — | 176.6 |
| 2025 | 120 | 71 | 1117 | 6 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 188.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 109.3 | 73 | 1140 | 7 | 1 | 7.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 195.0 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band for Collins runs from 96.4 points at the 10th percentile to 250.6 at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season lands at 184.4 points, a touch above the 173.8 point estimate. The 25th percentile is 139.2 and the 75th is 218.2, so the middle half of outcomes spans roughly 79 points. The downside is real: a 10th-percentile season at 96.4 points would represent a significant step back from his recent history. The upside at 250.6 reflects what his target volume and yardage ceiling can produce when things break right. His three-year fumble average of 0.7 per season, including one fumble lost in 2025, is a minor but real drag on the floor. The band is wide enough to respect both ends.
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our projection
How to draft him
Collins is ranked #27 overall and WR9 in these rankings. His market ADP is 21.4, which works out to pick 2.09 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That means the market is pricing him as a second-round pick. Plan accordingly: if you want Collins, the second round is when you will need to spend the pick. His bye is Week 8, which is worth noting for roster construction but is not a reason to avoid him. At WR9 with a draftValue of +44.6 and three consecutive seasons of 99-plus targets, he is a receiver whose production profile is well-established heading into 2026.
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Questions drafters ask
Collins has seen 109 targets in 2023, 99 in 2024, and 120 in 2025, for a three-year average of 109.3 per season. That is a consistent workload across all three years.
The 10th-percentile simulated outcome is 96.4 half-PPR points. That represents the bottom 10% of modeled seasons and would be a meaningful drop from his recent production. The 25th percentile is 139.2 points, which is a more typical bad year.
His market ADP is 21.4, which translates to pick 2.09 in a 12-team draft. If you want him, the second round is when you will need to commit, based on where he is currently being taken across public drafts.
He is WR9 by position rank and #27 overall, placed in Tier 5. His draftValue is +44.6, putting him above replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format.
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Beyond the rankings
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