#29 overall · CHI · 166.6 projected half-PPR pts · +38.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 43.9
D'Andre Swift — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
D'Andre Swift has cleared 1,000 rushing yards in two of the last three seasons, with 1,049 in 2023 and 1,087 in 2025, and his three-year average sits at 1,031.7 rushing yards per season. He is a genuine three-down back: over that same stretch he has averaged 49.7 targets and 38.3 receptions per year, adding nearly 300 receiving yards annually. The touchdown production has climbed, from 6 combined scores in 2023 to 10 in 2025, and his three-year average of 7.4 total touchdowns reflects a back who finds the end zone with consistency. The workload is real, averaging 235 rush attempts per season across 2023 through 2025. Swift carries a draft value of +38.8, meaning the projection places him well above replacement level at the running back position.
What the model projects
The projection for Swift is 166.6 half-PPR fantasy points this season. He is ranked #29 overall and RB18, sitting in Tier 6. The median simulated season lands at 177.6 points, slightly above the point estimate. His bye week is Week 10.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 229 | 1049 | 5 | 49 | 39 | 214 | 1 | 3 | 179.8 |
| 2024 | 253 | 959 | 6 | 52 | 42 | 386 | — | 2 | 191.5 |
| 2025 | 223 | 1087 | 9 | 48 | 34 | 299 | 1 | 2 | 211.6 |
| 3-yr avg | 235 | 1031.7 | 6.7 | 49.7 | 38.3 | 299.7 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 196.7 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, which is consistent with the variance that comes with a high-volume running back. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons produces just 70.9 points. The 25th percentile is 121.4 points, still a meaningful step below the projection. The median simulated season is 177.6 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 225.7 points, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons finishes at 259.5 points. The gap between the p10 and p90 outcomes spans nearly 189 points, so the floor and ceiling here are genuinely far apart. Drafters should weigh that downside seriously alongside the upside.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is currently drafting Swift at an average pick of 43.9, which translates to the 4th round, 8th pick in a 12-team draft. That is the window where you will need to spend a pick to secure him. He is ranked #29 overall and RB18 in this projection set. Plan your roster construction around his Week 10 bye.
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Questions drafters ask
He has averaged 235 rush attempts per season from 2023 through 2025, with individual season totals of 229, 253, and 223 attempts respectively.
Yes. He has averaged 49.7 targets and 38.3 receptions per season over the last three years, with receiving yardage totals of 214, 386, and 299 across those seasons.
The top 10 percent of simulated seasons projects to 259.5 points, while the bottom 10 percent lands at just 70.9 points. The range is nearly 189 points wide, so both the ceiling and the floor are meaningful considerations.
The market is currently taking him at an average pick of 43.9, or the 4th round, 8th pick in a 12-team draft. That is the price of admission based on where public drafts are landing him.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.