#130 overall · HOU · 87.1 projected half-PPR pts · -23.0 Draft Value · Market ADP 137.3
Woody Marks — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Woody Marks put together a legitimate workload in 2025, carrying the ball 196 times for 703 rushing yards while adding 24 receptions on 36 targets for 208 receiving yards. He also found the end zone five times, splitting his touchdowns between the ground (2) and the air (3). That kind of dual-threat production, with a catch rate of 67 percent on his targets, shows he can contribute in the passing game and not just as a between-the-tackles runner. For a drafter hunting late-round depth at running back, that 2025 profile is the foundation of any argument for him.
What the model projects
The projection is 83.4 half-PPR fantasy points. That puts Marks at RB42 and #188 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -45.0, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 81.2 points, close to the point estimate, which signals a relatively centered distribution around that headline number.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 196 | 703 | 2 | 36 | 24 | 208 | 3 | 1 | 133.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 196 | 703 | 2 | 36 | 24 | 208 | 3 | 1 | 133.1 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the low end, 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or below 13.7 points, a near-zero fantasy contribution. The 25th percentile lands at 38.8 points, still a fringe-starter ceiling in most weeks. The median sits at 81.2 points. From there, the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 124.0 points and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or above 173.0 points. That upper band represents a legitimate weekly starter. The gap between the floor and the ceiling here is substantial, and drafters should price in both possibilities.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP has Marks going at pick 136.3, which works out to the 12th round, 4th pick in a 12-team draft (12.04), based on a median across two platforms. That is deep-draft territory. At that stage of a draft, he is a speculative add rather than a core piece of a roster. His bye falls in Week 8, worth noting when building out a late-round depth chart. Given the wide outcome band, he fits best as a handcuff or upside flier in the final rounds rather than a player to count on for consistent production.
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Questions drafters ask
He carried the ball 196 times for 703 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns, while catching 24 of 36 targets for 208 receiving yards and 3 receiving touchdowns. He also fumbled once.
The projection is 83.4 half-PPR fantasy points. That ranks him RB42 and #188 overall, placing him in Tier 9 with a draft value of -45.0, which is below replacement level at the position.
The band runs from 13.7 points at the 10th percentile to 173.0 points at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 81.2 points. The top quarter of outcomes (p75 and above) start at 124.0 points, so meaningful upside exists even if the floor is very low.
Market ADP puts him at pick 136.3, or round 12, pick 4 in a 12-team draft. That figure is drawn from two platforms, so treat it as a directional signal rather than a precise number.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.