#128 overall · SF · 92.5 projected half-PPR pts · -22.8 Draft Value
Deebo Samuel — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Deebo Samuel is a multi-phase weapon. Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 89.7 targets, 61 receptions, 763 receiving yards, and 5 receiving touchdowns per year, while also contributing 32 rush attempts and 145.3 rush yards annually. The rushing role adds a floor that a pure receiver does not have: even in 2025, when his carry count dropped to 17, he still found the end zone on the ground and posted a career-high 72 receptions on 99 targets. His 2023 season shows the ceiling when everything clicks: 892 receiving yards, 225 rush yards, and 12 combined touchdowns. That kind of dual-threat production is rare at the position, and the three-year record confirms it is not a one-year anomaly.
What the model projects
The projection is 110.1 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That places Samuel at #126 overall and WR53, landing in Tier 9. His draft value sits at -19.1, meaning the projection falls below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate of 110.1 is close to but slightly above the median simulated season of 102.6, reflecting a distribution that is modestly right-skewed.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 89 | 60 | 892 | 7 | 37 | 225 | 5 | 1 | 213.7 |
| 2024 | 81 | 51 | 670 | 3 | 42 | 136 | 1 | — | 130.1 |
| 2025 | 99 | 72 | 727 | 5 | 17 | 75 | 1 | 2 | 152.2 |
| 3-yr avg | 89.7 | 61 | 763 | 5 | 32 | 145.3 | 2.3 | 1 | 165.1 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. At the low end, the bottom 10 percent of outcomes land at 37.1 points, and the 25th percentile sits at 65.9. The median is 102.6. The 75th percentile reaches 138.0, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons come in at 182.8 points. That is a spread of nearly 146 points from p10 to p90, which signals meaningful season-to-season variance. The 2023-to-2025 history illustrates that variance in real terms: combined touchdowns ranged from 4 in 2024 to 12 in 2023, and rush yards fell from 225 to 75 across the same window. A drafter buying Samuel is accepting a wide range of possible outcomes, with the upside scenario approaching a WR2 season and the downside scenario producing very little fantasy value.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is taking Samuel at pick 120.5 on average, which works out to the 11th round, 1st pick in a 12-team draft (11.01). That ADP is based on a median across two platforms, so treat it as a directional signal rather than a precise consensus. Samuel is ranked #126 overall. At that draft slot, he is a late-round flier whose upside is real but whose floor, as the band makes clear, is very low. Plan for him to be a roster spot that either pays off in a big way or contributes little. His bye is Week 8, which is worth noting for roster construction in the middle of the season.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 110.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That ranks him #126 overall and WR53, placing him in Tier 9 with a draft value of -19.1.
Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 32 rush attempts and 145.3 rush yards per year, with a three-year average of 2.3 rushing touchdowns. His carry totals have varied: 37 in 2023, 42 in 2024, and 17 in 2025.
The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons land at 37.1 points, and the 25th percentile is 65.9. His 2024 season, which produced 670 receiving yards, 136 rush yards, and 4 combined touchdowns, gives a concrete historical reference for what a down year looks like.
The market ADP is 120.5, which translates to pick 11.01 in a 12-team draft. If you want Samuel, that is roughly when you would need to spend a pick to secure him, based on a median across two platforms.
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Beyond the rankings
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