#129 overall · NE · 92.7 projected half-PPR pts · -23.0 Draft Value
Hunter Henry — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Hunter Henry has been one of the more consistent tight ends in the league over the past three seasons. His 2025 line of 768 receiving yards, 60 receptions, 87 targets, and 7 touchdowns represents his best scoring output in the three-year window. The three-year averages tell a similar story: 620.3 receiving yards, 56 receptions, 81.7 targets, and 5 receiving touchdowns per season. That touchdown floor is real. He has cleared 5 receiving scores in two of the last three years, and the 2024 dip to 2 touchdowns looks like the outlier in the set. For a position where reliable target volume is hard to find late in drafts, Henry's 80-plus target average carries weight.
What the model projects
The projection is 92.4 half-PPR fantasy points. Henry sits at #142 overall and TE17, placing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -27.3, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. That number is the honest context for everything else: the historical production is genuine, but the projection does not see it translating into surplus value at this position rank.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 61 | 42 | 419 | 6 | 1 | 98.9 |
| 2024 | 97 | 66 | 674 | 2 | — | 112.4 |
| 2025 | 87 | 60 | 768 | 7 | — | 148.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 81.7 | 56 | 620.3 | 5 | 0.3 | 120.0 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. The bottom 10% of outcomes lands at 39.4 points, a figure that reflects how badly a tight end season can collapse. The 25th percentile is 67.6 points. The median simulated season comes in at 101.3 points, which sits above the 92.4 point estimate. The 75th percentile reaches 124.0 points, and the top 10% of outcomes climbs to 152.3 points. That upper band is meaningful: a season in that range would represent genuine fantasy relevance at the position. The spread from p10 to p90 is 112.9 points, which signals that the outcome variance here is substantial. Henry is not a lock for any particular result.
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our projection
How to draft him
The market is currently taking Henry at pick 153.6, which works out to the 13th round, 10th pick in a 12-team draft. That is late-draft territory. His bye is Week 11, worth noting for roster management in that stretch. Given the negative draft value and the TE17 position rank, Henry profiles as a depth or streaming option rather than a foundational piece of a fantasy roster. If you are targeting him, the 13th round is when the market says you need to spend a pick to get him. The wide outcome band means the upside is real, but so is the floor.
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Questions drafters ask
The model ranks him TE17 with a draft value of -27.3, which puts him below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. He is better suited as a depth or streaming option than a primary starter.
Over the last three seasons he has averaged 620.3 receiving yards, 56 receptions, 81.7 targets, and 5 receiving touchdowns per year. His 2025 season was his best of the three: 768 yards, 60 receptions, 87 targets, and 7 touchdowns.
The simulated season band runs from 39.4 points at the 10th percentile to 152.3 points at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 101.3 points. That is a 112.9-point spread from bottom to top, indicating significant season-to-season variance.
The market ADP is 153.6, which translates to the 13th round, 10th pick in a 12-team draft. That is based on a median across two platforms. If you want him, that is the range where you would need to spend a pick.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.