#131 overall · WAS · 223.9 projected half-PPR pts · -23.9 Draft Value
Jayden Daniels — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jayden Daniels put up one of the more compelling dual-threat rookie seasons in recent memory in 2024: 3,568 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 891 rushing yards, and 6 rushing scores on 148 carries. That rushing volume is the core of the fantasy argument. Quarterbacks who carry the ball that frequently generate a scoring floor that pure pocket passers cannot match, and Daniels demonstrated he can do it at scale. His 2025 line was sharply reduced across every category, 1,262 passing yards, 8 passing touchdowns, 278 rushing yards, and 2 rushing scores on 58 attempts, but the 2024 tape and production are the reason he is on this page at all. The three-year averages reflect the contrast: 584.5 rushing yards and 4 rushing touchdowns per season, pulled down by the 2025 numbers. If the 2024 version is closer to his true level, the upside is real.
What the model projects
The projection is 252.8 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That places Daniels at QB7 by draft value and #87 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value sits at -5.5, meaning the projection comes in just below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate of 252.8 is modestly above the median simulated season of 244.8, which tells you the distribution has a slight upward skew. These are the numbers as they stand.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 480 | 331 | 3568 | 25 | 9 | 148 | 891 | 6 | 5 | 358.8 |
| 2025 | 188 | 114 | 1262 | 8 | 3 | 58 | 278 | 2 | 3 | 115.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 334 | 222.5 | 2415 | 16.5 | 6 | 103 | 584.5 | 4 | 4 | 239.1 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, and that width is the defining feature of Daniels as a fantasy asset. The 10th-percentile season lands at 101.5 points, a number that reflects how badly things can go when volume and efficiency both disappoint. The 25th percentile is 186.1. The median is 244.8. The 75th percentile climbs to 309.2, and the 90th-percentile outcome reaches 361.1. That is a spread of roughly 260 points between the bad tail and the great tail. The 2024 season showed what the top of that band looks like in practice. The 2025 season showed what the bottom looks like. A drafter buying Daniels is accepting that full range.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Daniels is ranked QB7 and #87 overall. The market is currently drafting him at pick 71.9, which works out to the 6th round, 12th pick in a 12-team snake draft. That is the window you are working with: if you want him, plan to spend a pick in that neighborhood. His bye is Week 7, worth noting for roster management. Given that his draft value is slightly negative at this projection, he is best treated as a mid-to-late-round quarterback target for drafters who want the rushing-upside profile and are comfortable with the variance the band describes. Do not reach for him early expecting the 2024 ceiling; do not dismiss him late if the rushing floor matters to your roster construction.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2024 he logged 148 rush attempts for 891 yards and 6 rushing touchdowns. His 2025 rushing line dropped to 58 attempts, 278 yards, and 2 scores. The three-year average works out to 103 rush attempts and 584.5 rushing yards per season. The projection of 252.8 points is the model's current estimate; the band's wide spread from 101.5 to 361.1 reflects genuine uncertainty about which version shows up.
His draft value of -5.5 means the projection sits just below replacement level at quarterback in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks QB7 and #87 overall. That is the honest read. Drafters who prioritize rushing upside at the position may still find him useful at the right pick, but the numbers do not project him as a surplus asset at this time.
The 10th-percentile simulated season is 101.5 points, the 25th percentile is 186.1, and the median is 244.8. On the upside, the 75th percentile is 309.2 and the 90th is 361.1. The downside tail is steep: a bottom-10% season produces roughly 40% of the median output. That variance is the central risk with Daniels.
The market ADP is 71.9, which translates to the 6th round, 12th pick in a 12-team draft. That is based on a median across 2 platforms. If you want him, that is the approximate pick you need to budget.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.