#118 overall · TEN · 97.1 projected half-PPR pts · -18.1 Draft Value
Wan'Dale Robinson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Wan'Dale Robinson's 2025 season was the clearest statement of his role to date: 140 targets, 92 receptions, 1,014 receiving yards, and 4 receiving touchdowns. That target volume matches his 2024 total exactly, and the yardage represents a meaningful step forward from the 699 he posted that year. Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 119.3 targets and 81.7 receptions per year, which is a consistent workload for a receiver in this range. The 2025 receiving yard total crossing 1,000 is the kind of production that earns continued target share. He also contributes a small rushing element, averaging 5 rush attempts per year across that three-year window, though the ground game has faded to near-nothing in recent seasons. The receiving work is the story, and it has been durable.
What the model projects
The projection for Robinson is 115.1 half-PPR fantasy points. His draftValue is -13.7, placing him #108 overall and WR47 in Tier 9. A negative draftValue means the projection sits below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection is close to his median simulated outcome: the p50 of his outcome band is 109.7 points, just below the 115.1 point estimate. Those two numbers are in the same neighborhood, which reflects a relatively stable central tendency in his simulated seasons.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 78 | 60 | 525 | 1 | 9 | 87 | 1 | — | 103.2 |
| 2024 | 140 | 93 | 699 | 3 | 3 | 18 | — | — | 136.2 |
| 2025 | 140 | 92 | 1014 | 4 | 3 | 5 | — | 1 | 171.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 119.3 | 81.7 | 746 | 2.7 | 5 | 36.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 137.1 |
The range of outcomes
Robinson's outcome band is wide. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 41.4 points, and 25% finish at or below 72.0. The median sits at 109.7. On the upside, 25% of simulated seasons reach 145.0 or better, and the top 10% clear 188.4 points. That gap between the p10 and p90, from 41.4 to 188.4, is substantial. The floor is a near-zero fantasy contributor; the ceiling is a WR2-caliber season. His three-year history shows the target volume has been consistent, but the 2023 receiving yard total of 525 is a reminder that volume alone does not guarantee production. A drafter buying Robinson is accepting real downside in exchange for a ceiling that the 2025 season showed is reachable.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Robinson's market ADP is 108.4, which works out to pick 9.12 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is the pick you spend to secure him. He is #108 overall in the rankings and WR47. His bye is Week 9, which is worth noting for roster management in the middle of the season. At this stage of a draft, the question is whether his target-volume floor and 2025 breakout justify the pick over other options at the position. The outcome band says the answer depends heavily on which version shows up: the 1,014-yard receiver from 2025 or something closer to the 525-yard version from 2023.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2025 he posted 140 targets, 92 receptions, 1,014 receiving yards, and 4 receiving touchdowns, along with 3 rush attempts for 5 yards and 1 fumble.
The projection is 115.1 half-PPR fantasy points. His draftValue is -13.7, ranking him #108 overall and WR47 in Tier 9.
His market ADP is 108.4, which translates to pick 9.12 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms.
His simulated season band runs from 41.4 points at the p10 to 188.4 at the p90, with a median of 109.7. That is a significant spread, reflecting meaningful variance between a near-zero floor and a strong-contributor ceiling.
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Beyond the rankings
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