#116 overall · SF · 97.7 projected half-PPR pts · -17.6 Draft Value
Mike Evans — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The three-year averages tell a story worth sitting with: 875.7 receiving yards, 61 receptions, 102.7 targets, and 9 touchdowns per season. The 2023 and 2024 lines were full-season performances of genuine consequence, with Evans posting 1,255 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2023 and following with 1,004 yards and 11 scores in 2024. That is a receiver who, when healthy and active for a full slate of games, has consistently produced at a high volume. The 2025 line is what it is: 368 yards, 30 catches, 3 touchdowns on 62 targets. The question for 2026 is whether the full-season version of Evans shows up, and the projection says it can.
What the model projects
The projection is 134.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That lands Evans at #64 overall and WR28, sitting in Tier 8. His draft value is +5.3, meaning the projection puts him above replacement level at the wide receiver position. The median simulated season comes in at 137.2 points, close to the point estimate. These are the numbers the model puts on the table for a receiver now playing for San Francisco with a Week 8 bye.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 136 | 79 | 1255 | 13 | 243.0 |
| 2024 | 110 | 74 | 1004 | 11 | 203.4 |
| 2025 | 62 | 30 | 368 | 3 | 69.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 102.7 | 61 | 875.7 | 9 | 172.1 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, and that width is the central fact about Evans in 2026. At the 10th percentile, simulated seasons bottom out at 58.5 points: a near-invisible fantasy season. At the 25th percentile the number climbs to 95.6, still below the projection. The median sits at 137.2. Push into the upside half and the 75th percentile reaches 171.7 points, with the 90th percentile at 209.2. That top-decile outcome is a genuinely impactful fantasy season. The gap between the floor and the ceiling here is among the largest in the projection set for this tier, and drafters need to price that variance honestly before committing a pick.
(bottom 10%)
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our projection
How to draft him
The market is taking Evans at pick 58.8 on average, which works out to the 5th round, 11th pick in a 12-team draft. Our rankings place him at #64 overall. Both numbers put him in the same general neighborhood of a draft, so the conversation is straightforward: if you want Evans, Round 5 is when you need to spend the pick. His bye falls in Week 8, which is worth noting for roster construction but is not a reason to avoid him. The wide outcome band means the drafter who takes him is accepting real variance. If the full-season version of Evans materializes in San Francisco, the 134.1-point projection and the +5.3 draft value suggest he earns his cost. If it does not, the floor at the 10th percentile is a reminder of what the downside looks like.
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Questions drafters ask
Over the three seasons from 2023 to 2025, Evans averaged 875.7 receiving yards, 61 receptions, 102.7 targets, and 9 touchdowns per year. The 2023 and 2024 seasons were full-year outputs of 1,255 and 1,004 yards respectively, each with double-digit touchdowns. The 2025 season produced 368 yards, 30 catches, and 3 touchdowns on 62 targets.
The projection is 134.1 half-PPR fantasy points, ranking him WR28 at #64 overall. He sits in Tier 8 with a draft value of +5.3, which places him above replacement level at the position.
The simulated season band runs from 58.5 points at the 10th percentile to 209.2 at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 137.2 points. The floor is real: one in ten simulated seasons finishes at or below 58.5 points, so the downside risk is significant even as the upside reaches into genuinely impactful fantasy territory.
The market ADP is 58.8, which translates to Round 5, pick 11 in a 12-team draft. That is the pick cost the market is currently charging. Our ranking of #64 overall puts him in the same general range, so Round 5 is realistically when you need to act if Evans is on your target list.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.