#119 overall · NE · 229.6 projected half-PPR pts · -18.2 Draft Value
Drake Maye — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Drake Maye's 2025 season is the foundation of the argument. He threw for 4,394 yards and 31 touchdowns against 8 interceptions on 492 attempts, completing 354 passes. He also carried the ball 103 times for 450 yards and 4 rushing touchdowns. That dual-threat profile is real and it showed up in the stat sheet. Fumbles remain a concern: 8 in 2025, 3 lost, following 9 fumbles and 6 lost in 2024. The ball-security issue is documented across both seasons. But the volume, the arm production, and the rushing contribution all point to a QB who can accumulate fantasy points through multiple avenues. He sits at QB4 with a positive draft value of +13.5 points above replacement, and the 2025 breakout gives that rank a concrete grounding.
What the model projects
The projection is 271.8 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That places Maye at QB4 and #57 overall in Tier 8. The three-year average across 2023-2025 shows 3,335 passing yards, 23 passing touchdowns, 435.5 rushing yards, and 3 rushing touchdowns per season, which reflects how much of the 2025 production was a step forward from his 2024 debut. The 2025 line of 4,394 passing yards, 31 passing touchdowns, and 450 rushing yards with 4 scores on the ground is the high-water mark in the record. The projection at 271.8 points sits just above the median simulated outcome of 269.3, a tight alignment between the point estimate and the typical simulated season.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 338 | 225 | 2276 | 15 | 10 | 54 | 421 | 2 | 9 | 183.1 |
| 2025 | 492 | 354 | 4394 | 31 | 8 | 103 | 450 | 4 | 8 | 355.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 415 | 289.5 | 3335 | 23 | 9 | 78.5 | 435.5 | 3 | 8.5 | 278.3 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the 10th percentile, simulated seasons land at 115.0 points. The 25th percentile is 210.3, the median 269.3, the 75th percentile 329.2, and the 90th percentile 375.9. The distance from the p10 to the p90 is 260.9 points, which reflects genuine season-to-season variance for a young quarterback. The downside is steep: a p10 outcome at 115.0 points would represent a significant miss relative to the projection. The upside at 375.9 is meaningful. Fumble volume is the clearest documented risk in the historical record: 17 fumbles across 2024 and 2025, with 9 lost. That pattern is already baked into the history, and it is the most concrete reason the low end of the band sits where it does.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Maye is #57 overall and QB4. His market ADP is 51.9, which works out to pick 5.04 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That means the market is pulling him off the table in the fifth round. If you are running a strategy that waits on quarterback, note that the market is not waiting on Maye: a fifth-round commitment is the price of admission. His bye is Week 11, a mid-season week that is worth noting for roster planning. The +13.5 draft value above replacement confirms he projects as a contributor, not just a roster filler, at the QB position.
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Questions drafters ask
The improvement was substantial across the board. In 2024 he threw for 2,276 yards, 15 passing touchdowns, and 10 interceptions on 338 attempts, adding 421 rushing yards and 2 rushing scores. In 2025 those numbers jumped to 4,394 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, 8 interceptions on 492 attempts, 450 rushing yards, and 4 rushing touchdowns. Fumbles stayed elevated: 9 in 2024 (6 lost) and 8 in 2025 (3 lost).
The 10th-percentile simulated outcome is 115.0 half-PPR points, and the 25th percentile is 210.3. The historical fumble record, 17 fumbles across two seasons with 9 lost, is the most concrete documented risk factor in the data. The band's low end reflects that variance is real and the floor is low.
His market ADP is 51.9, which translates to pick 5.04 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. The market is taking him in the fifth round. If you want him, that is the window you are working with.
The record supports it. He had 54 rush attempts for 421 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2024, then 103 rush attempts for 450 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2025. The three-year average is 78.5 rush attempts and 435.5 rushing yards per season. The volume increased meaningfully from year one to year two, and the projection at QB4 reflects that dual-threat profile.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.