#169 overall · NYG · 74.0 projected half-PPR pts · -36.2 Draft Value
Tyrone Tracy — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Tyrone Tracy has logged back-to-back seasons as a volume carrier for the Giants. In 2024 he took 192 rush attempts for 839 yards and caught 38 of 53 targets for 284 receiving yards, adding five rushing touchdowns. In 2025 the rushing volume held: 176 attempts, 740 yards, and a combined four touchdowns on the ground and through the air, with 36 receptions on 48 targets for 288 receiving yards. The three-year averages tell a consistent story: roughly 184 rush attempts, 50.5 targets, 37 receptions, and 789.5 rushing yards per season. That kind of sustained workload at the position is the foundation any late-round dart throw needs.
What the model projects
The projection is 82.7 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. Tracy's draftValue sits at -46.1, placing him #201 overall and RB43 in Tier 9. A negative draftValue means the projection falls below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season (p50) lands at 80.3 points, close to the point estimate. The projection and the median are in tight agreement here.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 192 | 839 | 5 | 53 | 38 | 284 | 1 | 4 | 163.3 |
| 2025 | 176 | 740 | 2 | 48 | 36 | 288 | 2 | 1 | 142.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 184 | 789.5 | 3.5 | 50.5 | 37 | 286 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 156.1 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 13.4 points, and the 25th percentile sits at 38.3. The median is 80.3. Move to the upside and the 75th percentile reaches 123.0 points, with the top 10% of simulated seasons finishing at or above 171.8. That is a spread of more than 158 points between the p10 and p90. The floor is near zero fantasy relevance; the ceiling, while not guaranteed, is a legitimate weekly starter. Tracy's fumble history adds to that variance: four fumbles and two lost in 2024, one fumble and one lost in 2025. Ball security is a real factor in how the high end of that band gets reached.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Tracy is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. There is no pick number to plan around. At RB43 and #201 overall in Tier 9, he projects below replacement level, so the calculus is straightforward: he is a depth add, not a core piece. His bye falls in Week 8. If you are building a deep roster and want a back with established volume, Tracy is a name to keep on your list for the final rounds, but the projection and the draftValue both say he should not cost you a meaningful pick.
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Questions drafters ask
He projects at 82.7 points with a draftValue of -46.1, which places him below replacement level at RB (RB43, #201 overall, Tier 9). The volume is real — 176-192 rush attempts and 48-53 targets in each of the last two seasons — but the projection does not clear the replacement bar in a 12-team format. He fits as a late-round depth back, not a starter.
The p90 outcome is 171.8 half-PPR points, meaning 10% of simulated seasons finish at that level or higher. The p75 is 123.0. Those numbers represent a functional weekly starter. The floor is severe, though: the p10 is just 13.4 points, and the p25 is 38.3.
Very consistent by volume. Over the last two seasons he caught 38 of 53 targets (2024) and 36 of 48 targets (2025), totaling 284 and 288 receiving yards respectively. The three-year average is 37 receptions on 50.5 targets for 286 yards. The reception rate and target share have been stable.
It is worth noting. He had four fumbles and lost two in 2024. In 2025 that dropped to one fumble, one lost. The three-year average is 2.5 fumbles per season. Ball security is a real variable in his range of outcomes, and it is one reason the p10 floor sits as low as 13.4 points.
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Beyond the rankings
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