Cade Otton — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Cade Otton has been one of the more consistent volume accumulators at tight end over the past three seasons. He has cleared 55 receptions and 78 targets in each of the last two years, and his three-year averages of 78.3 targets, 55 receptions, and 542.3 receiving yards reflect a player who holds a real role in Tampa Bay's offense. The 2024 season was his best on record: 87 targets, 59 catches, 600 yards, and 4 receiving touchdowns. He followed that with 81 targets, 59 catches, and 572 yards in 2025. The floor is real. He has not been a ghost in this offense, and that target share is the foundation of any case for him.

What the model projects

The projection is 78.0 half-PPR fantasy points. Otton ranks #188 overall and TE22, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -42.4, meaning the projection places him below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate of 78.0 sits just below the median simulated outcome of 83.4, which is a normal relationship between a point estimate and a distribution with a long upside tail.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 29.7 points, a near-irrelevant fantasy total. The 25th percentile lands at 53.3 points, still a thin return. The median simulated season is 83.4 points. The 75th percentile reaches 106.8, and the top 10% of simulated seasons come in at 136.9 points or better. That upper tail is meaningful: a season near the 90th percentile would represent a genuine fantasy contributor. The gap between the floor and ceiling here is among the widest in the data, which reflects how much touchdown variance can swing a tight end's final line. His three-year average of 3 receiving touchdowns per season, with a low of 1 in 2025, illustrates exactly that volatility.

How to draft him

Otton does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being consistently drafted on the platforms tracked. He is a late-flier or waiver-wire name in most formats, not a pick you need to plan around. His rank of #188 overall and TE22 reflects a projection below replacement level, so the primary use case is as a handcuff or a speculative add in deeper leagues where tight end scarcity forces you down the position. His bye is Week 10, worth noting if you are stacking multiple players on the same schedule. If you are targeting him, the upside scenario requires the touchdown rate to recover toward his 2023-2024 levels; the 2025 line of one receiving touchdown on 81 targets is the risk you are accepting.

He ranks TE22 and #188 overall with a draft value of -42.4, placing him below replacement level in a 12-team half-PPR format. He has no consistent market ADP across tracked platforms, so most drafters are not spending a pick on him at all. The projection is 78.0 points, with a median simulated outcome of 83.4. He is a depth or waiver option, not a planned pick.

Over the past three seasons he has averaged 78.3 targets per year. He saw 67 targets in 2023, 87 in 2024, and 81 in 2025. Receptions have been steady at 47, 59, and 59 across those same years. The volume is real and consistent; the issue is that touchdowns dropped to 1 in 2025 after back-to-back seasons of 4.

The 90th-percentile simulated season lands at 136.9 half-PPR points. The 75th percentile is 106.8. Getting there likely requires a touchdown recovery closer to his 2023-2024 average of 4 per season, combined with target volume holding near the 80-plus range he has posted in each of the last two years.

The 10th-percentile simulated season is 29.7 points, and the 25th percentile is 53.3. A season near that lower band would make him a near-zero fantasy asset. The wide gap between the floor and ceiling reflects how much a single-digit touchdown total can compress a tight end's value when the yards-per-reception and target rate stay flat.