#60 overall · IND · 129.0 projected half-PPR pts · +8.6 Draft Value · Market ADP 61.5
Tyler Warren — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Tyler Warren's 2025 season is the entire three-year aggregate. Every receiving yard, every reception, every target in the 2023-2025 window belongs to that one campaign: 112 targets, 76 receptions, 817 receiving yards, and 4 receiving touchdowns. That kind of target volume in a single season is a legitimate usage argument for a tight end. He also added 6 rush attempts, 8 rush yards, and a rushing touchdown, giving him a small but real role in the run game. The production base is narrow in terms of seasons, but the 2025 sample itself is substantial.
What the model projects
The projection is 129.0 half-PPR fantasy points, with a draft value of +8.6 above replacement level at the position. That places Warren at TE5 and #60 overall in Tier 8. The point estimate sits meaningfully below the median simulated season of 139.5 points, which reflects the shape of the outcome distribution rather than any contradiction in the numbers. Both figures are worth knowing: 129.0 is the headline projection, 139.5 is where a typical simulated season lands.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 112 | 76 | 817 | 4 | 1 | 150.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 112 | 76 | 817 | 4 | 1 | 150.5 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or below 73.8 points, a figure that would make him a liability at the position. The 25th percentile is 104.1 points, still a below-average TE1 season. The median sits at 139.5, the 75th percentile at 162.0, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons reach 189.4 points. That upper tail is a genuine TE1 ceiling. The spread from p10 to p90 runs 115.6 points, which signals real variance. Drafters are buying into a player whose floor and ceiling are both meaningful.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Warren's market ADP is 61.5, drawn from two platforms, which translates to pick 6.02 in a 12-team snake draft. That means a drafter targeting him needs to be ready to spend a sixth-round pick. He sits at #60 overall and TE5 in the rankings. His bye is Week 13, late enough that it rarely disrupts playoff runs but worth noting for roster management. If you want Warren, the sixth round is when the market says you have to commit.
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Questions drafters ask
Warren posted 112 targets, 76 receptions, 817 receiving yards, and 4 receiving touchdowns in 2025. He also carried the ball 6 times for 8 yards and a rushing touchdown. Notably, his 2025 season accounts for his entire three-year statistical aggregate, meaning 2023 and 2024 contributed nothing to those totals.
The outcome band runs from 73.8 points at the 10th percentile to 189.4 points at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 139.5 points. The floor is a season that would be difficult to start at the position; the ceiling is a high-end TE1 campaign.
Warren is TE5 with a projected 129.0 half-PPR points and a draft value of +8.6 above replacement level. He ranks #60 overall and sits in Tier 8.
His market ADP is 61.5 across two platforms, which works out to pick 6.02 in a 12-team snake draft. Plan to use a sixth-round pick if you want him on your roster.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.