#58 overall · HOU · 139.0 projected half-PPR pts · +10.6 Draft Value · Market ADP 47.4
David Montgomery — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
David Montgomery arrives in Houston with a three-year track record that is hard to dismiss. From 2023 through 2025 he averaged 187.3 rush attempts, 835.3 rush yards, 11 rushing touchdowns, and 25.3 receptions per season. The touchdown production is the headline: 13 rushing scores in 2023, 12 in 2024, and 8 in 2025, for a three-year average of 11 per season. That kind of red-zone consistency is what keeps a running back relevant in half-PPR formats. His receiving work has also grown: targets climbed from 24 in 2023 to 38 in 2024 before settling at 29 in 2025, and his 2024 season showed he can contribute as a pass-catcher with 341 receiving yards and 36 receptions. The floor is real. Montgomery has posted positive draftValue in this projection, sitting at +10.6 above replacement level, which means the model sees him as a net contributor relative to what a 12-team half-PPR drafter could otherwise find at the position.
What the model projects
The projection for Montgomery is 139.0 half-PPR fantasy points. His draftValue of +10.6 places him #58 overall and RB26 in Tier 8. That is a back the model sees as a clear positive over replacement level, even if the ceiling is modest relative to the top of the position. The three-year averages that feed into this picture: 835.3 rush yards, 11 rushing touchdowns, 216.7 receiving yards, and 25.3 receptions per season. His bye week falls in Week 8.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 219 | 1015 | 13 | 24 | 16 | 117 | 2 | 197.2 |
| 2024 | 185 | 775 | 12 | 38 | 36 | 341 | 2 | 203.7 |
| 2025 | 158 | 716 | 8 | 29 | 24 | 192 | 2 | 152.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 187.3 | 835.3 | 11 | 30.3 | 25.3 | 216.7 | 2 | 186.7 |
The range of outcomes
Montgomery's outcome band is wide, which is worth understanding before you commit a pick. The median simulated season lands at 145.6 points, close to the 139.0 projection. But the tails are significant. In the bottom 10% of simulated seasons he finishes at just 52.0 points; in the bottom quarter he reaches only 94.1. On the upside, the top quarter of simulated seasons produces 191.9 points and the top 10% reaches 230.7. That p10-to-p90 spread of 178.7 points reflects genuine season-to-season variance. The fumble history is a consistent data point across all three seasons: two fumbles and one fumble lost in each of 2023, 2024, and 2025. That is a known risk that lives inside the downside tail.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Montgomery's market ADP is 47.4, drawn from two platforms, which translates to pick 4.11 in a 12-team draft. The model has him at #58 overall and RB26. If you want him, the market is currently pricing him in the fourth round. His bye in Week 8 is worth noting for roster-management purposes, but it should not drive the decision. Given the wide outcome band, he fits best as a depth piece or a handcuff-adjacent target rather than a cornerstone of your backfield. Draft him with clear eyes on the downside: the p10 outcome of 52.0 points is a real possibility, and the fumble history across three straight seasons is a consistent variable in that floor.
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Questions drafters ask
He has been one of the more reliable red-zone backs in recent years by this measure: 13 rushing touchdowns in 2023, 12 in 2024, and 8 in 2025, for a three-year average of 11 rushing touchdowns per season.
Based on a market ADP of 47.4 across two platforms, you would need to spend a pick at 4.11 in a 12-team draft to secure him.
The simulated outcome band puts his 10th-percentile season at 52.0 half-PPR points and his 25th-percentile season at 94.1 points. Those are the numbers that define his downside in a bad year.
Yes, with some growth. He had 16 receptions on 24 targets in 2023, then expanded to 36 receptions on 38 targets for 341 receiving yards in 2024. In 2025 he posted 24 receptions on 29 targets for 192 receiving yards. His three-year average is 25.3 receptions and 30.3 targets per season.
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Beyond the rankings
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Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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