#79 overall · CIN · 246.6 projected half-PPR pts · -1.2 Draft Value
Joe Burrow — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The 2024 season is the clearest argument for Burrow. He threw for 4,918 yards and 43 touchdowns against 9 interceptions, added 201 rushing yards and 2 rushing scores, and fumbled 11 times while losing 5. That is a full-season stat line that lands him squarely in the QB3 conversation heading into 2026. The three-year aggregate tells a more complicated story: 3,012 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, and 6.7 interceptions per season on average, pulled down by a 2023 campaign of 2,309 yards and 15 touchdowns and a 2025 line of 1,809 yards and 17 touchdowns across 259 attempts. The peak is real. The floor is also real. Drafters who believe 2024 is the baseline, not the ceiling, have a case worth making.
What the model projects
The projection is 272.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits above the three-year average output implied by the historical lines and reflects a positive draft value of +13.9 points over replacement level at the position. Burrow ranks QB3 and lands at #56 overall in Tier 8. The median simulated season comes in at 270.3 points, essentially in line with the point estimate, which signals a relatively symmetric distribution around the projection.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 365 | 244 | 2309 | 15 | 6 | 31 | 88 | — | 2 | 153.2 |
| 2024 | 652 | 460 | 4918 | 43 | 9 | 42 | 201 | 2 | 11 | 381.8 |
| 2025 | 259 | 173 | 1809 | 17 | 5 | 14 | 41 | — | — | 139.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 425.3 | 292.3 | 3012 | 25 | 6.7 | 29 | 110 | 0.7 | 4.3 | 229.0 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the 10th percentile, simulated seasons bottom out at 115.9 points, a number consistent with the kind of truncated stat lines seen in 2023 and 2025. At the 90th percentile, seasons reach 374.8 points, closer to what a full 2024-caliber campaign would produce. The 25th percentile sits at 211.8 and the 75th at 329.2, giving a middle-50 range of roughly 117 points. That is a substantial spread for a quarterback, and it is the central tension in any Burrow draft decision: the upside is genuine, but the downside is not a soft landing. Drafters need to be comfortable with both ends of that band before committing a pick.
(bottom 10%)
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(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is drafting Burrow at pick 53.8 on average, which works out to the 5th round, 6th pick in a 12-team draft. The model has him at #56 overall and QB3. His bye is Week 6, worth noting for roster planning in the early weeks. At his current draft cost, you are spending a mid-round pick on a quarterback with a +13.9 draft value surplus and a wide outcome band. If you are running a strategy that waits on quarterback, Burrow is the kind of QB3 who can anchor that approach when the season goes right. If you are targeting him specifically, the 5th round is when you need to be ready to pull the trigger.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 272.1 half-PPR points. His 2024 season was his strongest recent campaign, with 4,918 passing yards and 43 touchdowns. His 2023 and 2025 lines were considerably lighter, pulling the three-year average passing yards to 3,012 and passing touchdowns to 25 per season. The 272.1 projection sits above that three-year average, closer to the 2024 output than the other two seasons.
The 10th-percentile simulated season lands at 115.9 half-PPR points. The 25th percentile is 211.8. That lower quarter of outcomes represents a significant drop from the 272.1 projection, and the historical record includes two seasons well below that projection level. The downside is a real part of the range, not a tail risk to dismiss.
The market ADP is 53.8, which translates to Round 5, Pick 6 in a 12-team draft. If you want him, that is the window where you need to spend the pick. He is currently being drafted ahead of his #56 overall ranking.
Burrow's bye is Week 6. That is an early-season bye, so if you draft him as your primary quarterback, you will need a reliable backup ready for that week. It is a roster-construction detail worth accounting for before draft day.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.