#59 overall · CHI · 137.1 projected half-PPR pts · +7.9 Draft Value · Market ADP 56.0
Rome Odunze — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Rome Odunze has been a target hog in Chicago since arriving in the league. In 2024 he drew 101 targets, pulling in 54 receptions for 734 yards and 3 touchdowns. In 2025 the target volume dipped to 90, but his touchdown production climbed to 6 on 44 catches and 661 yards. Averaged across the three-year window, he has seen 95.5 targets and 4.5 receiving touchdowns per season. That kind of consistent target share, paired with growing red-zone production, is the foundation of a viable WR2 floor. He sits at WR25 with a positive draft value of +7.9, meaning the projection puts him above replacement level at the position. Tier 8 is where the rankings place him, and the numbers behind that placement are grounded in real volume.
What the model projects
The projection for Odunze is 137.1 half-PPR fantasy points this season. That sits just below his 2024 actual production and reflects a stat line consistent with his two-year track record in Chicago. His bye week falls in Week 10, which is worth noting for roster management purposes. At +7.9 draft value, he clears the replacement-level bar at his position, landing at #59 overall in the rankings.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 101 | 54 | 734 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 2 | 117.9 |
| 2025 | 90 | 44 | 661 | 6 | — | — | — | 124.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 95.5 | 49 | 697.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 7.5 | 1 | 122.0 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band for Odunze is wide, which is the honest reality for a receiver at this stage of his career. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons lands at 61.2 points, a figure that reflects genuine downside risk. The 25th percentile comes in at 99.2 points. The median simulated season is 141.5 points, close to but not identical to the 137.1 point projection. The 75th percentile reaches 175.9 points, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons produces 212.5 points. That upper band represents a legitimate WR1 outcome. The spread from p10 to p90 runs more than 150 points, so drafters should enter with eyes open: the floor is real, and so is the ceiling.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is currently taking Odunze at pick 56.0 on average, which works out to the 5th round, 8th pick in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. The rankings place him at #59 overall. If you want him, the 5th round is where you will need to spend a pick. His bye in Week 10 is a manageable but real scheduling consideration. In deeper leagues where target volume is at a premium, his 95.5-target three-year average makes him a credible late-round target at the WR position.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2024 he saw 101 targets; in 2025 that number was 90. His three-year average sits at 95.5 targets per season, making him a consistent volume receiver in Chicago's offense.
The 90th-percentile simulated season comes in at 212.5 half-PPR points. The 75th percentile is 175.9. Those are the top-end outcomes the band supports, though the p10 floor of 61.2 points is a real risk to price in as well.
The market median is pick 56.0, which translates to Round 5, Pick 8 in a 12-team draft. That is the current going rate across the two platforms feeding the ADP figure.
Yes. He scored 6 receiving touchdowns in 2025 on 90 targets, up from 3 touchdowns on 101 targets in 2024. His three-year average is 4.5 receiving touchdowns per season.
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Beyond the rankings
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