#370 overall · NO · 164.1 projected half-PPR pts · -83.7 Draft Value
Tyler Shough — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Tyler Shough's 2025 season is the only NFL production on record, and it reads as a functional starter line: 221 completions on 327 attempts, 2,384 passing yards, 10 passing touchdowns, and a modest rushing contribution of 186 yards and 3 touchdowns on 45 carries. The dual-threat floor is real. For a drafter building a late-round QB2 or streaming option in New Orleans, that rushing dimension is the clearest reason to pay attention. The 67.4% completion rate shows he can move the chains, and the 13 total touchdowns in 2025 give him a credible scoring baseline. If the situation develops, the upside band is wide enough to matter.
What the model projects
The projection is 207.3 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits at QB23 and #192 overall, placing Shough in Tier 9. His draft value is -46.6, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The headline number is 207.3; the median simulated season (p50) is 184.8, a modest gap that reflects the distribution of outcomes around the point estimate.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 327 | 221 | 2384 | 10 | 6 | 45 | 186 | 3 | 3 | 162.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 327 | 221 | 2384 | 10 | 6 | 45 | 186 | 3 | 3 | 166.0 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 67.8 points, a near-zero fantasy contribution. The 25th percentile is 125.8 points, still a thin return. The median sits at 184.8. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 262.0 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons land at or above 328.6. That 328.6 ceiling is a legitimate QB1 number. The distance between the p10 and p90 outcomes is over 260 points, which is among the wider bands a drafter will encounter at the position. Shough is a high-variance asset, not a safe floor play.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
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our projection
How to draft him
Shough is going in the 14th round, pick 9 of a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is late-draft territory, and the cost is low. He ranks #192 overall and QB23. A drafter who wants him as a QB2 or a late-round lottery ticket should plan to spend a pick in the 14th round or be prepared to find him on the waiver wire. The bye in Week 8 is worth noting for roster management. Given the variance in his outcome band, pairing him with a more stable QB1 is the sensible approach.
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Questions drafters ask
He completed 221 of 327 passes for 2,384 yards and 10 touchdowns, with 6 interceptions. He also carried the ball 45 times for 186 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns. He fumbled 3 times and lost 2. That is the entirety of his NFL statistical record across the three-year aggregate window as well, meaning 2025 was his only season of NFL production.
The projection is 207.3 half-PPR fantasy points. His 2025 season is the baseline the projection builds from. The median simulated season (p50) is 184.8 points, slightly below the point estimate of 207.3.
Very wide. The p10 floor is 67.8 points and the p90 ceiling is 328.6 points, a spread of over 260 points across simulated seasons. The downside is real: a quarter of simulated seasons finish at or below 125.8 points. The upside at the 75th percentile (262.0) and 90th percentile (328.6) is legitimate, but this is a high-variance play, not a stable weekly contributor.
Market ADP, drawn from two platforms, puts him at pick 165.2, which is round 14, pick 9 in a 12-team draft. He ranks QB23 and #192 overall. Plan to spend a late-round pick if you want him on your roster heading into the season.
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Beyond the rankings
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