#371 overall · ARI · 81.9 projected half-PPR pts · -84.0 Draft Value
Joshua Karty — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Joshua Karty's 2024 season is the clearest argument in his favor. He connected on 29 of 34 field goal attempts, including 19 from inside 40 yards, 4 from 40-49, and 6 from 50 or beyond. That long-range volume is notable: six makes from 50-plus yards in a single season represents genuine deep-range work. He also converted 32 of 36 extra point attempts, giving him a full and active workload. The 3-year aggregate backs up the 2024 picture: 19.5 field goals and 27.5 extra points per season on average, with only 4 misses per season across that window. For a drafter who wants a kicker with demonstrated range and a recent high-volume season on record, Karty's 2024 line is the evidence to point to.
What the model projects
The projection for Karty is 81.9 half-PPR fantasy points. His draftValue sits at -94.2, placing him K34 and #352 overall in Tier 9. A negative draftValue means the projection falls below replacement level at the kicker position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The numbers are what they are: this is a below-replacement projection at the current ranking.
| FG | FGM | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 29 | 5 | 32 | 130.0 |
| 2025 | 10 | 3 | 23 | 55.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 19.5 | 4 | 27.5 | 23.5 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. The median simulated season lands at 73.4 points, which is close to but below the 81.9 point projection. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons produce just 2.1 points, and the 25th percentile reaches only 17.6. On the upside, the 75th percentile is 115.6 points and the 90th percentile climbs to 135.9. That gap between the floor and ceiling is substantial. A bad season for Karty looks very bad; a strong season approaches the 135-point range. The 2025 season illustrates the floor risk directly: 10 makes on 15 attempts, just 23 extra points, and a stat line that fell well short of his 2024 output. Drafters should weigh both ends of that band seriously.
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our projection
How to draft him
Karty is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no pick-cost data to report. At K34 and #352 overall in Tier 9, he sits deep in the kicker tier. His draftValue of -94.2 reflects a below-replacement projection in this format. If he appears on your roster, it will be as a late-round or undrafted addition rather than a planned pick. The 2024 season gives him a real ceiling to point to, but the 2025 line and the outcome band's steep downside are the context any drafter needs before committing a spot to him.
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Questions drafters ask
His draftValue is -94.2, which places him below replacement level at kicker in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks K34 and #352 overall in Tier 9. The projection of 81.9 points and a median simulated season of 73.4 points do not clear the replacement bar. He is not a planned draft target based on these numbers.
In 2024 he made 29 of 34 field goal attempts, including 6 from 50-plus yards, and converted 32 of 36 extra points. In 2025 those numbers dropped sharply: 10 makes on 15 attempts, 1 from 50-plus, and 23 of 26 extra points. The two seasons represent opposite ends of his outcome band.
The band runs from 2.1 points at the 10th percentile to 135.9 at the 90th. The 25th percentile is 17.6 points and the 75th is 115.6. That is a very wide spread. A bad season is nearly scoreless; a strong season approaches 136 points. The floor risk is real and the 2025 stat line is a concrete example of it.
There is no market ADP available for Karty, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. He is effectively an undrafted or deep-waiver-wire option rather than a player requiring a planned pick.
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Beyond the rankings
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Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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