#37 overall · ARI · 152.3 projected half-PPR pts · +30.0 Draft Value · Market ADP 35.8
Trey McBride — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Trey McBride has done nothing but grow. In 2023 he caught 81 of 106 targets for 825 yards and 3 touchdowns. In 2024 those numbers climbed to 111 catches, 147 targets, and 1,146 yards. In 2025 he reached 126 receptions on 169 targets for 1,239 yards and 11 touchdowns. The three-year averages tell the same story: 140.7 targets, 106 receptions, 1,070 receiving yards, and 5.3 receiving touchdowns per season. That is a target share and reception volume that most tight ends never approach, and the touchdown production in 2025 showed a new dimension on top of the volume. The workload is real, it has grown every year, and there is no ambiguity about his role in Arizona's offense.
What the model projects
The projection is 152.3 half-PPR fantasy points. McBride sits at TE2 and #37 overall, with a draft value of +30.0 points above replacement at his position. He lands in Tier 6 of the overall rankings. The projection reflects a player whose three-year trajectory has been consistently upward across every counting category.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 106 | 81 | 825 | 3 | 1 | 141.0 |
| 2024 | 147 | 111 | 1146 | 2 | — | 188.3 |
| 2025 | 169 | 126 | 1239 | 11 | — | 252.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 140.7 | 106 | 1070 | 5.3 | 0.3 | 193.7 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band runs from 97.1 points at the 10th percentile to 212.7 at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season lands at 162.8 points, a touch above the 152.3 point projection. The 25th percentile is 127.4 and the 75th is 185.3. The floor at p10 is a meaningful step down from the median, which is the nature of a position where touchdown variance is high. The ceiling at p90, however, is substantial, and the 2025 season already demonstrated that McBride can reach that range when the touchdowns fall his way. His bye week is Week 14.
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(median)
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our projection
How to draft him
McBride's market ADP is 35.8, which works out to pick 3.12 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. He ranks #37 overall in our rankings. At TE2, he is a player you will need to commit to in the third round if you want him. Waiting on tight end is a common draft strategy, but McBride's target volume and the touchdown upside shown in 2025 make him a player the market is not letting slip. If your draft plan includes a premium tight end, the third round is when that decision gets made.
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Questions drafters ask
Very consistent and growing. He saw 106 targets in 2023, 147 in 2024, and 169 in 2025, for a three-year average of 140.7 per season. That kind of ascending volume at tight end is rare and well-documented in his stat line.
The 10th-percentile simulated outcome is 97.1 half-PPR points. That is the bottom of the bad-season range across thousands of simulated seasons. The 25th percentile sits at 127.4, so three-quarters of simulated seasons finish above that mark.
His market ADP is 35.8, which translates to pick 3.12 in a 12-team snake draft. That is the third round, near the end of it. If you want him, that is the window the market is currently pricing.
Both. His three-year average is 5.3 receiving touchdowns per season, but in 2025 he scored 11 receiving touchdowns on 169 targets. The volume has been there every year; the 2025 season added a high-end touchdown rate on top of it.
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Beyond the rankings
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