#89 overall · NYJ · 111.3 projected half-PPR pts · -4.0 Draft Value
Garrett Wilson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Garrett Wilson has been one of the most targeted wide receivers in the league across the past three seasons. In 2023 he drew 168 targets, catching 95 of them for 1,042 yards. In 2024 he built on that with 153 targets, 101 receptions, 1,104 yards, and 7 receiving touchdowns. The three-year average tells the same story: 126.7 targets, 77.3 receptions, 847 receiving yards, and 4.7 receiving touchdowns per season. That kind of target volume is a durable foundation. The 2025 line — 59 targets, 36 receptions, 395 yards, and 4 touchdowns — is a reduced sample, and the per-game rates inside it are worth noting before writing off the underlying talent. Wilson sits at WR15 with a positive draft value of +30.0 points above replacement. That is a player who projects to contribute meaningfully above the baseline at his position.
What the model projects
The projection for Wilson is 158.8 half-PPR fantasy points this season. He ranks #37 overall and WR15 at his position, placing him in Tier 7 of the overall rankings. His draft value of +30.0 confirms he projects above replacement level at wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR format. The three-year average of 126.7 targets per season is the clearest input the history provides; the projection of 158.8 points sits modestly below his median simulated outcome of 169.4, which means the point estimate leans slightly conservative relative to the middle of his outcome distribution. His bye week is Week 13.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 168 | 95 | 1042 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 165.7 |
| 2024 | 153 | 101 | 1104 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 199.4 |
| 2025 | 59 | 36 | 395 | 4 | — | — | 1 | 81.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 126.7 | 77.3 | 847 | 4.7 | 2 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 151.7 |
The range of outcomes
Wilson's outcome band is wide. In the bottom 10% of simulated seasons he finishes at 81.3 points — a figure consistent with a severely limited role. The 25th percentile lands at 124.1, still a usable but unspectacular WR2 floor. The median simulated season is 169.4 points, and the 75th percentile reaches 203.3. In the top 10% of simulated seasons he scores 235.7 points, a number that would make him a weekly starter with upside. The spread from p10 to p90 is 154.4 points, which reflects genuine variance in his situation. The 2025 season (395 yards, 59 targets) and the 2023-2024 peak seasons (1,042 and 1,104 yards, 168 and 153 targets respectively) both live inside that band, and they illustrate exactly how wide the realistic range is.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Wilson's market ADP is 37.8, drawn from two platforms, which translates to pick 4.02 in a 12-team snake draft. That is the fourth round, second pick. His overall rank is #37 overall, so the market and the model are closely aligned on where he sits. Plan to spend a fourth-round pick if you want him. At that point in the draft you are getting a WR15 with a +30.0 draft value surplus and a ceiling of 235.7 points in a strong season. The wide outcome band means he carries real variance into your lineup, so roster construction around him matters. If you are building a higher-floor team, weigh that p10 of 81.3 carefully. If you have the roster depth to absorb a down season, the upside at 203-plus points in the top quartile of outcomes is a reasonable target at this draft cost.
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Questions drafters ask
He averaged 126.7 targets per season across 2023-2025, with peaks of 168 in 2023 and 153 in 2024. The 2025 season produced 59 targets in a reduced sample.
The projection is 158.8 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks #37 overall and WR15 at his position, with a draft value of +30.0 points above replacement in a 12-team half-PPR format.
The bottom 10% of simulated seasons lands at 81.3 points; the top 10% reaches 235.7. The median simulated season is 169.4 points, and the 75th percentile is 203.3, so the upside is real but the downside is meaningful.
His market ADP is 37.8 across two platforms, which works out to pick 4.02 in a 12-team snake draft. Budget a fourth-round pick if you want him on your roster.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.