#40 overall · NO · 156.3 projected half-PPR pts · +29.0 Draft Value · Market ADP 38.7
Travis Etienne — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Travis Etienne arrives in New Orleans with a three-year track record that includes a 1,000-yard rushing season in 2023 (1,008 yards, 267 attempts, 11 rushing touchdowns) and a bounce-back 2025 campaign that matched that output almost exactly: 1,107 rushing yards on 260 attempts, with 7 rushing touchdowns and 6 receiving touchdowns. The 2024 season was a different story, 558 rushing yards and 150 attempts, but the 2025 rebound is the more recent data point. Averaged across all three years, he has posted 891 rushing yards, 340.7 receiving yards, 44.3 receptions, and 9 combined touchdowns per season. That is a workhorse profile with a real receiving floor: 52 targets in each of the last two seasons. The touchdown upside is genuine, and the receiving work keeps him relevant in half-PPR formats even in weeks where the run game stalls.
What the model projects
The projection is 156.3 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. The model places him at #40 overall and RB21, sitting in Tier 7. His draft value is +29.0 points above replacement level at the running back position, meaning the projection sees him as a meaningful contributor above what a freely available back would provide. The median simulated season (p50) lands at 165.6 points, slightly above the point estimate, which reflects the shape of the outcome distribution. His bye week is Week 8.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 267 | 1008 | 11 | 73 | 58 | 476 | 1 | — | 249.4 |
| 2024 | 150 | 558 | 2 | 52 | 39 | 254 | — | 1 | 110.7 |
| 2025 | 260 | 1107 | 7 | 52 | 36 | 292 | 6 | — | 235.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 225.7 | 891 | 6.7 | 59 | 44.3 | 340.7 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 199.3 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, and that width is the central fact about Etienne in 2026. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons produces just 63.8 points, a number that reflects how badly things can go for a running back in a given year. The 25th percentile sits at 111.2 points, still a disappointing result relative to the projection. On the upside, the 75th percentile reaches 213.1 points and the top 10% of simulated seasons finishes at 248.8 points. That 185-point spread between p10 and p90 captures the full range of what this player can be in a single season. The 2023-to-2024 swing in his own history, from 1,008 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns down to 558 yards and 2 scores, illustrates that the downside band is not theoretical. The 2025 rebound to 1,107 yards and 13 combined touchdowns shows the upside is equally real.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is currently taking Etienne at pick 38.7 on average, which works out to the 3rd pick of the 4th round in a 12-team draft. That is the window you are working with. If you want him, you need to spend a pick in that neighborhood. At RB21 with a +29.0 draft value surplus, he projects above replacement, but the band makes clear this is not a low-variance selection. Plan your roster construction accordingly: the downside at p10 is steep enough that pairing him with a handcuff or a second running back with a safer floor is a reasonable approach. His Week 8 bye is worth noting for lineup planning, particularly if you are building a roster with multiple players sharing that week off.
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Questions drafters ask
Over the last three seasons he has posted 1,008 rushing yards in 2023, 558 in 2024, and 1,107 in 2025, on 267, 150, and 260 attempts respectively. The three-year average is 891 rushing yards and 225.7 attempts per season.
He has seen 52 targets in each of the last two seasons, catching 39 passes for 254 yards in 2024 and 36 passes for 292 yards in 2025. The three-year average is 59 targets, 44.3 receptions, and 340.7 receiving yards per season.
The 10th-percentile simulated season lands at 63.8 half-PPR points, and the 25th percentile is 111.2 points. His own 2024 season, 558 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns, shows that kind of outcome is within the historical range for this player.
The market average is pick 38.7, which translates to the 3rd pick of the 4th round in a 12-team draft. That is the price the market is currently setting for him.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.