#44 overall · PHI · 155.6 projected half-PPR pts · +26.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 31.9
DeVonta Smith — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
DeVonta Smith has cleared 1,000 receiving yards in two of the last three seasons, and his three-year averages tell a consistent story: 104.7 targets, 75.3 receptions, 969 receiving yards, and 6.3 receiving touchdowns per season. The target volume is the foundation. Crossing 100 targets in a season is not a given for any receiver, and Smith has done it twice in three years, with 112 in 2023 and 113 in 2025. His catch rate holds up across that stretch, and he has lost just one fumble over the entire three-year window. He is a WR19 with a positive draft value, sitting in Tier 7 of the overall rankings, and his floor is built on volume that has proven durable.
What the model projects
The projection is 155.6 half-PPR fantasy points, with a draft value of +26.8 above replacement level at the wide receiver position. That places Smith at #44 overall and WR19. His bye week is 10.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 112 | 81 | 1066 | 7 | — | — | 1 | 187.1 |
| 2024 | 89 | 68 | 833 | 8 | 1 | 1 | — | 165.4 |
| 2025 | 113 | 77 | 1008 | 4 | — | — | — | 163.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 104.7 | 75.3 | 969 | 6.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 172.4 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band runs from 78.1 points at the 10th percentile to 232.4 at the 90th. The median simulated season lands at 166.2 points, a touch above the 155.6 point estimate. The 25th percentile is 120.9 and the 75th is 200.1, so the interquartile range spans roughly 79 points. The upside case, where Smith clears 200 points, is a realistic outcome in the top quarter of simulations. The downside case, where he falls below 120, reflects the kind of variance any receiver faces over a full season. His 2024 line of 833 yards and 68 catches on 89 targets shows what a compressed version of his season looks like; his 2023 and 2025 lines show the ceiling when targets stay above 110.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Smith's market ADP is 31.9, which works out to pick 3.08 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. The model has him at #44 overall and WR19. Plan to spend a third-round pick if you want him. His bye falls in Week 10, so account for that when building your roster depth.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
The projection is 155.6 half-PPR fantasy points, with a draft value of +26.8 above replacement level. That ranks him #44 overall and WR19.
He has averaged 104.7 targets per season over the 2023-2025 window, crossing 100 targets in both 2023 (112) and 2025 (113). His 2024 season came in at 89 targets.
His market ADP is 31.9, which translates to pick 3.08 in a 12-team snake draft. Expect to spend a third-round selection to land him.
The 10th-percentile simulated season is 78.1 points and the 90th percentile is 232.4. The median simulated season is 166.2 points, and the top quarter of simulations has him clearing 200.1 points.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
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