#103 overall · JAX · 237.2 projected half-PPR pts · -10.6 Draft Value
Trevor Lawrence — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Trevor Lawrence's 2025 season is the clearest argument in his favor. He threw for 4,007 yards and 29 touchdowns against 12 interceptions, added 359 rushing yards and 9 rushing touchdowns on 82 attempts, and cut his fumbles lost to 3. That rushing touchdown total is the kind of dual-threat production that inflates fantasy floors at the position. The three-year averages back up the ceiling: 3,356 passing yards, 20.3 passing touchdowns, 5.3 rushing touchdowns, and 272.3 rushing yards per season across 2023-2025. The 2024 line was sharply reduced across every category, 2,045 passing yards and 11 passing touchdowns on only 284 attempts, but the 2023 and 2025 seasons bracket it with full-season volume. A drafter who believes 2025 is the truer signal gets a QB with legitimate dual-threat upside ranked QB9.
What the model projects
The projection is 249.8 half-PPR fantasy points. That places Lawrence at QB9 and #101 overall in Tier 9. His draft value sits at -11.5, meaning the projection lands just below replacement level for the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate of 249.8 is modestly above the median simulated season of 240.1, reflecting a distribution that has more room to run on the upside than the downside at the center of the range. His bye week is 7.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 564 | 370 | 4016 | 21 | 14 | 70 | 339 | 4 | 11 | 274.5 |
| 2024 | 284 | 172 | 2045 | 11 | 7 | 26 | 119 | 3 | 2 | 146.2 |
| 2025 | 560 | 341 | 4007 | 29 | 12 | 82 | 359 | 9 | 5 | 348.2 |
| 3-yr avg | 469.3 | 294.3 | 3356 | 20.3 | 11 | 59.3 | 272.3 | 5.3 | 6 | 263.3 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the 10th percentile, simulated seasons bottom out at 98.6 points, a number consistent with the kind of truncated output seen in his 2024 line. The 25th percentile reaches 180.9 points, still a disappointing fantasy season. The median sits at 240.1 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile is 306.5 points and the 90th percentile reaches 360.4 points, a figure that would make him a weekly difference-maker. The distance between the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes, 98.6 to 360.4, is among the widest spreads a drafter will encounter at the position. Lawrence is not a low-variance pick. The 2024 season demonstrated the floor is real; the 2025 season demonstrated the ceiling is too.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Lawrence's market ADP is 93.7, drawn from 2 platforms, which works out to pick 8.10 in a 12-team snake draft. That is a late-round-8 commitment. At that draft slot, a drafter is typically deep into positional starters and looking for upside plays. Lawrence at QB9 fits that profile: the projection is 249.8 points, the ceiling at the 90th percentile is 360.4, and the rushing touchdown contribution from 2025 (9 scores on 82 attempts) gives him a scoring path that pure pocket passers at this range cannot match. The negative draft value is a real signal that the projection sits below replacement level, so the bet here is on the upside band, not the point estimate. Plan around the bye in Week 7 and have a streaming option ready.
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Questions drafters ask
The three-year averages (3,356 passing yards, 20.3 passing TDs, 5.3 rushing TDs per season) sit well below his 2025 numbers of 4,007 yards, 29 passing TDs, and 9 rushing TDs. The 2024 season was sharply reduced across every category. The projection of 249.8 points reflects all three seasons, not just 2025, so the model is not treating last year's output as a guaranteed repeat.
The 10th-percentile simulated season is 98.6 points and the 25th percentile is 180.9 points. Those are genuinely poor fantasy outcomes. The floor is real and the 2024 season, which produced only 2,045 passing yards and 11 passing touchdowns on 284 attempts, is a concrete historical reference for what a bad Lawrence year looks like.
His market ADP is 93.7 across 2 platforms, which translates to pick 8.10 in a 12-team draft. If you want Lawrence, that is the round-8 range where you need to spend the pick.
Yes. In 2025 he posted 359 rushing yards and 9 rushing touchdowns on 82 attempts. The three-year average is 272.3 rushing yards and 5.3 rushing touchdowns per season. Rushing touchdowns add half-PPR scoring that is independent of the passing game, and that dual-threat floor is part of what the 90th-percentile outcome of 360.4 points is built on.
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Beyond the rankings
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.