#101 overall · LAC · 105.4 projected half-PPR pts · -9.8 Draft Value
Quentin Johnston — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Quentin Johnston has posted back-to-back seasons of growth since his 2023 debut. He went from 431 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns in 2023 to 711 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2024, then held that touchdown pace in 2025 with 735 yards and 8 scores on 84 targets. The three-year averages tell a consistent story: 80.7 targets, 48 receptions, 625.7 receiving yards, and 6 receiving touchdowns per season. The touchdown production is the headline. Two straight seasons of 8 receiving scores is a real signal, and it anchors the projection even as the target and yardage numbers remain modest. His rushing contribution is minimal across all three seasons, so this is a pure receiving profile, and the scoring efficiency is what makes it worth a late-round look.
What the model projects
The projection is 121.5 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. That places Johnston at #92 overall and WR41, landing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -7.2, meaning the projection sits just below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 119.1 points, very close to the point estimate, which signals a relatively centered distribution around the headline number.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 67 | 38 | 431 | 2 | 3 | 9 | — | 75.0 |
| 2024 | 91 | 55 | 711 | 8 | 3 | 6 | — | 147.2 |
| 2025 | 84 | 51 | 735 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 145.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 80.7 | 48 | 625.7 | 6 | 2.7 | 7.3 | 0.3 | 123.3 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 47.3 points, a near-zero fantasy contribution. The 25th percentile lands at 80.1 points, still a fringe-starter ceiling in most weeks. The median sits at 119.1 points. From there, the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 154.0 points and the top-10% outcome is 195.3 points. That p90 number represents a genuine WR2 season. The gap between the floor and the ceiling is substantial, roughly 148 points from p10 to p90, which means roster decisions around Johnston carry real consequence. His bye is Week 7, worth noting for lineup planning.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP sits at 94.2, which translates to pick 8.10 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is a late-round pick where roster construction is largely about upside hunting and positional depth. Johnston's projection of 121.5 points and his WR41 rank reflect a player operating near replacement level, but the p90 outcome of 195.3 points gives him a ceiling worth targeting at that draft slot. At pick 8.10, the cost is low enough that the touchdown-dependent upside is a reasonable gamble for a drafter who already has their core receiving corps in place.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection of 121.5 points and a WR41 rank put him at replacement level, so he profiles as a depth piece and upside dart rather than a reliable starter. The p50 outcome of 119.1 points reflects a fringe-starter season in most half-PPR formats.
Johnston has posted 8 receiving touchdowns in each of the last two seasons, 2024 and 2025. The three-year average is 6 receiving touchdowns per season. That back-to-back scoring pace is the core of his fantasy case, and it is reflected in the p90 outcome of 195.3 points.
It is low. The p10 outcome is 47.3 points, and the p25 is 80.1 points. One in four simulated seasons finishes below 80 points, which is near-worthless in most formats. Drafters should treat him as a high-variance pick, not a safe floor play.
Market ADP is 94.2, or pick 8.10 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is the current market price to secure him on your roster.
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Beyond the rankings
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