#104 overall · KC · 104.3 projected half-PPR pts · -10.9 Draft Value
Rashee Rice — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Rashee Rice's 2023 season is the foundation of the argument: 102 targets, 79 receptions, 938 receiving yards, and 7 receiving touchdowns in a Kansas City offense that knows how to feed a receiver it trusts. That target share was real, and the downstream production was real. The three-year averages tell a more complicated story, pulled down by a 2024 that produced only 29 targets and 288 receiving yards, and a 2025 that recovered to 78 targets, 53 receptions, 571 yards, and 5 receiving touchdowns. The trajectory from 2024 to 2025 is the operative data point: volume came back, and so did scoring. A positive draft value of +43.0 points above replacement level puts him at WR11 and #29 overall, which is a meaningful surplus at a position where replacement-level production is easy to find late.
What the model projects
The projection is 172.2 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits modestly below his 2025 median simulated outcome of 182.8, so the point estimate and the band median are close but not identical. The three-year average receiving yardage of 599 and 4.7 receiving touchdowns per season anchor the baseline, with the 2023 ceiling season and the shortened 2024 both folded into the distribution. His draft value of +43.0 reflects a genuine surplus over replacement at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. He lands in Tier 6 of the overall rankings.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 102 | 79 | 938 | 7 | 1 | -3 | — | 2 | 173.0 |
| 2024 | 29 | 24 | 288 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | — | 52.9 |
| 2025 | 78 | 53 | 571 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 121.6 |
| 3-yr avg | 69.7 | 52 | 599 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 6 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 116.5 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated outcome band is wide, and that width is the central fact about Rice as a fantasy asset. At the 10th percentile, the season finishes at 94.7 points: a number that reflects how damaging a low-volume year can be, as 2024's 288 receiving yards demonstrated. At the 25th percentile the season reaches 137.6 points, still below replacement-level value for a receiver drafted this early. The median simulated season is 182.8 points. The 75th percentile is 216.7 and the 90th percentile is 249.0, a figure that would represent a near-repeat of his 2023 form. The gap between the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes is 154.3 points, which is a substantial spread. Drafters are buying a player whose floor and ceiling are genuinely far apart.
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our projection
How to draft him
The market is drafting Rice at pick 24.3 on average, which works out to pick 2.12 in a 12-team snake draft. That is a late second-round commitment. His bye is Week 5, which is early enough that it should not factor heavily into draft-day decisions but is worth noting for roster construction. At WR11 and #29 overall, the surplus he projects is real, and the late second round is when you would need to spend a pick to secure him. Given the width of his outcome band, the drafter's comfort with variance at that draft cost is the honest question to answer before the pick is made.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2023 Rice posted 102 targets, 79 receptions, 938 receiving yards, and 7 receiving touchdowns. The current projection is 172.2 half-PPR points, with a 90th-percentile simulated outcome of 249.0 points. His three-year average receiving yardage is 599, so the projection sits between his floor seasons and that 2023 peak.
The simulated outcome band runs from 94.7 points at the 10th percentile to 249.0 at the 90th percentile, a spread of 154.3 points. The 10th-percentile figure reflects the kind of season his 2024 represented: 29 targets and 288 receiving yards. The 25th percentile is 137.6 points, still a below-replacement outcome for a receiver taken in the second round.
The market ADP is 24.3, which translates to pick 2.12 in a 12-team snake draft. That is a late second-round pick based on a median across two platforms.
Rice is ranked #29 overall and WR11, with a draft value of +43.0 points above replacement level in a 12-team half-PPR format. He sits in Tier 6 of the overall rankings.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
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