#154 overall · LV · 84.4 projected half-PPR pts · -30.8 Draft Value
Tre Tucker — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Tre Tucker has posted three consecutive seasons of growth in Las Vegas. His target share climbed from 34 in 2023 to 81 in 2024 and then to 92 in 2025, the clearest signal in his profile that the offense has leaned on him more each year. Receptions followed the same arc: 19, then 47, then 57. Receiving yards went 331, 539, 696. Touchdowns went 2, 3, 5. That is a consistent upward line across every counting category, and it is the foundation of any argument for him in 2026. He also contributes on the ground, averaging 10 rush attempts and 57.3 rush yards per season over the last three years, with 0.3 rush touchdowns per season in that span. The combined receiving and rushing workload gives him multiple paths to fantasy production in any given week.
What the model projects
The projection is 101.1 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. Tucker ranks #146 overall and WR59 by draft value, placing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -28.1, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The three-year averages that feed into his profile are 69 targets, 41 receptions, 522 receiving yards, 3.3 receiving touchdowns, 10 rush attempts, 57.3 rush yards, and 0.3 rush touchdowns per season.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 34 | 19 | 331 | 2 | 10 | 77 | — | 62.3 |
| 2024 | 81 | 47 | 539 | 3 | 9 | 44 | 1 | 105.8 |
| 2025 | 92 | 57 | 696 | 5 | 11 | 51 | — | 133.2 |
| 3-yr avg | 69 | 41 | 522 | 3.3 | 10 | 57.3 | 0.3 | 100.0 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. At the 10th percentile, Tucker finishes at 29.1 points, a near-zero fantasy season. At the 25th percentile he reaches 54.9 points, still well below useful weekly production. The median simulated season lands at 89.6 points, a touch below the 101.1 point projection. The 75th percentile is 125.3 points, and the 90th percentile reaches 172.9 points. That top-decile outcome is more than five times the bottom-decile outcome, which tells you the variance here is substantial. The upside is real but the floor is very low, and the median sits below the projection, so the distribution skews toward the downside more often than not.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Tucker's market ADP is 156.5, drawn from two platforms, which works out to pick 14.01 in a 12-team draft. That is a 14th-round pick, deep enough that roster cost is minimal. He ranks #146 overall by draft value. Given his negative draft value and a median simulated season of 89.6 points, Tucker profiles as a late-roster stash rather than a core piece. His bye is Week 13, worth noting for playoff-week roster management. If you want exposure to his upside, Round 14 is when the market says you need to spend to get him.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
It is consistent growth, not noise. His targets went from 34 in 2023 to 81 in 2024 to 92 in 2025, three straight seasons of meaningful increases. Receptions and receiving yards followed the same direction each year.
The projection is 101.1 half-PPR points. The 90th-percentile simulated outcome is 172.9 points, which represents his top-decile upside. That is the ceiling the model's simulation produces; it is not guaranteed, and only 10% of simulated seasons reach or exceed it.
The 10th-percentile simulated season is 29.1 points, essentially a non-contributor. The 25th percentile is 54.9 points. The band is wide, and the low end is very low, so he carries real bust risk even as a late-round pick.
His market ADP is 156.5 across two platforms, which translates to pick 14.01 in a 12-team draft. If you want him, Round 14 is when you need to spend the pick.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.