#155 overall · NO · 114.4 projected half-PPR pts · -31.4 Draft Value
New Orleans Saints — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The Saints pass rush has been quietly building. New Orleans recorded 34 sacks in 2023, 39 in 2024, and 44 in 2025, a three-year climb that lands at a 39-sack average across that span. Fumble forcing has been consistent as well, averaging 10.3 per season over the same window, and fumble recovery has been strong: 11 in 2023, a dip to 3 in 2024, then a bounce back to 10 in 2025. The 2023 season showed genuine playmaking upside, with 18 interceptions, 2 defensive touchdowns, and a safety. If that kind of turnover production returns anywhere close to those levels, the fantasy ceiling rises meaningfully. The sack trend alone gives a drafter something real to point to.
What the model projects
The projection is 114.4 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. The draft value sits at -31.4, placing New Orleans at #152 overall and DST17 at their position. That is a Tier 9 designation. The bye week falls in Week 8, which is worth noting for roster management purposes.
| Sacks | INT | FF | FR | TD | Saf | PA | PA 0 | PA 1-6 | PA 7-13 | PA 14-20 | PA 21-27 | PA 28-34 | PA 35+ | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 34 | 18 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 327 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 3 | — | 145.0 |
| 2024 | 39 | 14 | 12 | 3 | 1 | — | 398 | — | — | 2 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 98.0 |
| 2025 | 44 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 1 | — | 383 | — | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 111.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 39 | 14 | 10.3 | 8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 369.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 101.7 |
The range of outcomes
The three-year history illustrates how wide DST variance can run. Points allowed swung from 327 in 2023 to 398 in 2024 to 383 in 2025. Interceptions dropped from 18 in 2023 to 14 in 2024 to 10 in 2025. Defensive touchdowns have held at 1 or 2 across all three seasons. The game-by-game scoring distribution tells the same story: in 2023, New Orleans held opponents to 13 or fewer points in three games and allowed 28 or more in three others. In 2024 and 2025, the unit allowed 21 or more points in nine games each season, with at least one 35-plus-point game in both years. The sack production is the most stable piece of the profile; everything else carries real season-to-season swing.
How to draft him
New Orleans does not have a market ADP available, meaning the unit is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. At DST17 with a -31.4 draft value, this is a late-round or streaming option in most 12-team half-PPR formats. The sack trend is the clearest reason to take a flier, but the projection and rank reflect a unit that has allowed a lot of points over the past two seasons. Plan for the Week 8 bye and build in a streaming alternative for that week.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 114.4 points and the draft value is -31.4, putting New Orleans at DST17 and #152 overall in Tier 9. That profile fits a streaming or last-resort roster spot rather than a locked-in starter.
Yes, on sacks specifically. New Orleans recorded 34 sacks in 2023, 39 in 2024, and 44 in 2025, for a three-year average of 39. That is the most stable part of the profile.
Interceptions fell from 18 in 2023 to 14 in 2024 to 10 in 2025. Fumble recoveries dropped sharply to 3 in 2024 before rebounding to 10 in 2025. The three-year average is 14 interceptions and 8 fumble recoveries per season.
New Orleans is on bye in Week 8. Given the unit's DST17 ranking, identifying a streaming option for that week before the season starts is a reasonable precaution.
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Beyond the rankings
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