#152 overall · SEA · 85.6 projected half-PPR pts · -29.6 Draft Value
Rashid Shaheed — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Rashid Shaheed's 2025 season was his most productive on record. He pulled in 59 receptions on 92 targets for 687 receiving yards and added 69 rushing yards on 9 carries, giving him a genuine dual-threat profile. That target volume is the headline: 92 looks in a single season is a meaningful workload for a receiver at his roster tier. His 2023 campaign showed a similar shape, with 46 catches on 75 targets for 719 yards and 5 receiving touchdowns. The three-year averages back up the consistency: 69.3 targets, 41.7 receptions, 585 receiving yards, and 3.3 receiving touchdowns per season. Shaheed is now in Seattle, and the case for drafting him rests on that established target floor and his ability to contribute in the run game as a secondary option.
What the model projects
The projection is 104.3 half-PPR fantasy points. Shaheed sits at WR55 and #131 overall, placing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -24.5, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate of 104.3 sits above the band median of 94.3, so the distribution carries a modest upside skew.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 75 | 46 | 719 | 5 | 7 | 37 | — | 128.6 |
| 2024 | 41 | 20 | 349 | 3 | 6 | 29 | — | 65.8 |
| 2025 | 92 | 59 | 687 | 2 | 9 | 69 | 1 | 115.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 69.3 | 41.7 | 585 | 3.3 | 7.3 | 45 | 0.3 | 103.7 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 31.9 points, a near-zero fantasy contribution. The 25th percentile lands at 58.8 points, still a fringe-starter ceiling in most weeks. The median simulated season produces 94.3 points. From there, the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 129.8 points and the top 10% of simulated seasons finish at or above 176.4 points. That p90 figure represents a legitimate WR2 outcome in a good week. The spread from p10 to p90 is 144.5 points, which reflects the boom-or-bust nature of a receiver whose role and target share can shift considerably from season to season. His 2024 line of 20 receptions, 41 targets, and 349 yards illustrates exactly how compressed the floor can get.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is drafting Shaheed at an average of pick 133.8, which works out to the 2nd pick of the 12th round in a 12-team draft. That is late-round territory, and the cost reflects his WR55 position rank. At that stage of a draft, roster spots are scarce and every pick needs a clear purpose. Shaheed's best use case is as a high-upside stash: his p90 of 176.4 points is a real number, and his three-year target history shows he can handle a featured role when opportunity is there. His bye is Week 11, worth noting for roster planning. If you are building depth at receiver in the final rounds, he is a name to have on your list heading into Round 12.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 104.3 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks WR55 at #131 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -24.5.
Over the three seasons from 2023 to 2025, he averaged 69.3 targets, 41.7 receptions, and 585 receiving yards per year. His 2025 season was his highest-volume year, with 92 targets and 59 receptions.
The p10 floor is 31.9 points, meaning 10% of simulated seasons end near zero fantasy value. The median is 94.3 points. The p90 ceiling is 176.4 points, which represents a strong WR2-level output in the best 10% of simulated seasons.
The market ADP is 133.8, or the 2nd pick of Round 12 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across 2 platforms. That is where he is currently being taken in public 2026 drafts.
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Beyond the rankings
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