#153 overall · HOU · 85.7 projected half-PPR pts · -30.0 Draft Value
Dalton Schultz — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Dalton Schultz has been one of the more durable target-getters at the tight end position over the past three seasons. His 2025 campaign was his best of the three-year window: 106 targets, 82 receptions, 777 receiving yards, and 3 touchdowns. The three-year averages tell a consistent story: 93 targets, 64.7 receptions, 648 receiving yards, and 3.3 receiving touchdowns per season. That kind of target volume is a real floor. Schultz is embedded in the Houston offense, and the usage trend is moving in the right direction.
What the model projects
The projection is 87.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits below his 2025 actual output, and it lands him at #161 overall and TE21. His draft value is -32.9, placing him in Tier 9. At this tier and rank, Schultz projects below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 94.7 points, a touch above the point estimate, which reflects some right-skew in his outcome distribution.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 88 | 59 | 635 | 5 | 1 | 121.0 |
| 2024 | 85 | 53 | 532 | 2 | — | 91.7 |
| 2025 | 106 | 82 | 777 | 3 | 1 | 136.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 93 | 64.7 | 648 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 117.0 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 35.8 points, a figure that represents a near-total collapse in production. The 25th percentile is 62.3 points, still a difficult fantasy season. The median sits at 94.7 points. Move up to the 75th percentile and the number climbs to 117.7, and the top 10% of simulated seasons reach 146.7 points. That upper band is a legitimate fantasy contributor at the position. The gap between the p10 and p90 outcomes is 110.9 points, so the variance here is substantial. Schultz's floor is fragile, but his ceiling in a strong season is meaningful.
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our projection
How to draft him
The market is drafting Schultz at pick 185.3 on average, which works out to round 16, pick 5 in a 12-team draft. That is late-draft territory. His bye is Week 8, worth noting for roster management in the early portion of the season. At TE21 with a negative draft value, he is a depth or streaming option rather than a foundational piece. If you are targeting late-round tight end upside, this is the range where Schultz comes off the board.
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Questions drafters ask
He posted 106 targets, 82 receptions, 777 receiving yards, and 3 touchdowns in 2025, his strongest statistical season of the three-year window tracked.
The projection is 87.1 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks #161 overall and TE21, with a draft value of -32.9, placing him in Tier 9.
The band runs from 35.8 points at the 10th percentile to 146.7 at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 94.7 points. The range is wide, meaning both a near-zero fantasy season and a genuinely useful one are plausible outcomes.
The market is taking him at an average of pick 185.3, which is round 16, pick 5 in a 12-team draft. That is deep in the draft, consistent with his TE21 position rank.
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Beyond the rankings
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