#245 overall · NYG · 56.5 projected half-PPR pts · -59.3 Draft Value
Theo Johnson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Theo Johnson's 2025 season was a clear step forward. He caught 45 passes on 74 targets for 528 yards and 5 touchdowns, improving on his 2024 line of 29 receptions, 43 targets, 331 yards, and 1 score across every meaningful category. The three-year averages tell the same story of a player building toward something: 37 receptions, 58.5 targets, 429.5 yards, and 3 touchdowns per season. The target volume in 2025 is the number worth watching. Seventy-four looks in a single season is a real workload for a tight end, and the touchdown rate jumped alongside it. For a drafter willing to wait deep into a draft, Johnson is a name attached to a recent production trend that points upward.
What the model projects
The projection is 55.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits almost exactly at the median simulated season of 55.0, which means the point estimate and the typical outcome are tightly aligned. Johnson is ranked #244 overall and TE34, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -67.2, which places him below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 43 | 29 | 331 | 1 | 53.6 |
| 2025 | 74 | 45 | 528 | 5 | 105.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 58.5 | 37 | 429.5 | 3 | 79.5 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons land at 14.5 points, and the 25th percentile sits at 30.6. The median is 55.0. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 79.2 points, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at 112.2. That is a spread of nearly 100 points between the 10th and 90th percentiles, which signals meaningful variance in either direction. A drafter targeting Johnson is accepting a wide range of results, from a near-zero fantasy contributor to a back-end streamer with genuine upside in the best-case scenarios.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Johnson does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being selected consistently enough to register a median draft position. In practice, he is available as a free agent or a very late flier in most drafts. At TE34 with a negative draft value, he is a depth add rather than a core piece of a fantasy roster. If you are building tight end depth late or looking for a high-variance dart throw at the position, Johnson fits that role. His bye falls in Week 8, worth noting when constructing a roster around him.
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Questions drafters ask
The model ranks him #244 overall and TE34 with a draft value of -67.2, placing him below replacement level at the position in Tier 9. He is a depth option rather than a starter, but his 2025 production of 45 catches, 74 targets, 528 yards, and 5 touchdowns shows a real workload that gives the projection something to work with.
The 90th-percentile simulated season lands at 112.2 half-PPR points. That represents the top 10 percent of outcomes and reflects a best-case scenario. The 75th percentile is 79.2 points, so meaningful upside exists, but the band is wide and the downside is real: the 10th percentile is just 14.5 points.
He does not have a market ADP in 2026 public drafts, meaning he is not being selected consistently enough across platforms to produce a median draft position. He is effectively available as a very late pick or off the waiver wire in most leagues.
In 2025 he posted 45 receptions, 74 targets, 528 yards, and 5 touchdowns. In 2024 those numbers were 29 receptions, 43 targets, 331 yards, and 1 touchdown. Every category improved, with targets rising by 31 and touchdowns jumping from 1 to 5.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.