Cole Kmet — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

The 2023 season is the anchor. Cole Kmet caught 73 passes on 90 targets for 719 yards and 6 receiving touchdowns that year, a workload that established him as a legitimate starter-level tight end. The three-year averages tell a more complicated story: 64.3 targets, 50 receptions, 513.3 receiving yards, and 4 receiving touchdowns per season. The 2023 peak is real, and it is the ceiling a drafter is buying into. If the target share and efficiency from that season return in any meaningful way, the production follows.

What the model projects

The projection is 56.6 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season lands at 56.9 points, essentially in line with that figure. Kmet sits at TE34 and #238 overall, placed in Tier 9. His draft value is -63.7, which means the projection falls below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. These numbers reflect where the three-year trend has settled, not the 2023 high-water mark.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide. The 10th-percentile simulated season produces just 15.5 points, a near-total non-factor. The 25th percentile reaches 32.1 points, still well below replacement. The median sits at 56.9 points. The 75th percentile climbs to 81.0 points, and the 90th percentile reaches 113.8 points. That top-decile outcome is more than seven times the floor, which signals substantial variance. The downside is steep and the upside is real, but the distribution skews heavily toward the lower end of the band.

How to draft him

Kmet does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough to generate one. At TE34 and #238 overall with a negative draft value, he is a late-roster or waiver-wire consideration at best. The 2023 production is the reason to keep his name in mind, but the three-year trend and the current projection place him firmly outside the range of picks that move a roster. If the situation in Chicago shifts in a way that restores his 2023-level target share, the 90th-percentile outcome shows what is possible. Until then, he is a speculative add, not a draft-day investment.

At TE34 and #238 overall with a draft value of -63.7, Kmet projects below replacement level. The projection is 56.6 points. He has no market ADP in 2026 drafts, meaning the market is not treating him as a draftable asset. The 2023 season showed a 90-target, 73-catch, 6-touchdown ceiling, but the three-year average has settled at 64.3 targets and 4 receiving touchdowns per season.

The 90th-percentile simulated season is 113.8 half-PPR points. That is the top-decile outcome across his simulated seasons. His 2023 actual line was 73 receptions, 719 yards, and 6 receiving touchdowns, which is the historical reference point for what a strong season looks like. The gap between that floor (15.5 points at the 10th percentile) and that ceiling is among the widest in his band.

In 2023 he posted 90 targets, 73 receptions, 719 yards, and 6 receiving touchdowns. In 2024 those numbers dropped to 55 targets, 47 receptions, 474 yards, and 4 touchdowns. In 2025 they fell further to 48 targets, 30 receptions, 347 yards, and 2 touchdowns. The three-year averages are 64.3 targets, 50 receptions, 513.3 yards, and 4 receiving touchdowns per season.

Kmet is in Tier 9, which is a grouping of players with similar draft value across all positions in the 12-team half-PPR rankings. Tier 1 is the best tier; Tier 9 places him well outside the range of players who project to return positive value over replacement level at their position.