#246 overall · NYG · 50.9 projected half-PPR pts · -59.3 Draft Value
Najee Harris — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Najee Harris arrives in New York with two consecutive 1,000-yard rushing seasons on his resume. In 2023 he carried 255 times for 1,035 yards and 8 touchdowns, adding 29 receptions for 170 yards. In 2024 he matched that output almost exactly: 263 attempts, 1,043 yards, 6 touchdowns, and a career-high 36 receptions for 283 receiving yards on 48 targets. The receiving work is real and consistent. His target share has grown each of the last two full seasons, and his receptions climbed from 29 to 36. For a drafter hunting late-round depth, Harris has a documented floor as a high-volume ball-carrier who contributes in the passing game.
What the model projects
The projection is 50.6 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. Harris ranks RB63 and sits at #286 overall, placing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -77.8, which means the projection lands below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The three-year averages across 2023-2025 tell part of the story: 177.7 rush attempts, 713 rush yards, 4.7 rush touchdowns, 22.7 receptions, 159.3 receiving yards, and 29.7 targets per season. The 2025 season produced only 15 rush attempts, 61 rush yards, 3 receptions, and 25 receiving yards.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 255 | 1035 | 8 | 38 | 29 | 170 | 2 | 181.0 |
| 2024 | 263 | 1043 | 6 | 48 | 36 | 283 | — | 186.6 |
| 2025 | 15 | 61 | — | 3 | 3 | 25 | — | 10.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 177.7 | 713 | 4.7 | 29.7 | 22.7 | 159.3 | 0.7 | 126.8 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. At the 10th percentile, Harris finishes at 1.1 points, a near-zero outcome. The 25th percentile lands at 12.5 points and the median simulated season comes in at 34.8 points. The upside scenarios are more meaningful: the 75th percentile reaches 75.6 points and the 90th percentile climbs to 113.2 points. That gap between the median and the 90th percentile is substantial, reflecting a profile where the high-end outcome requires a specific set of circumstances to materialize. Most simulated seasons cluster well below the point estimate of 50.6, with the distribution skewed by a relatively small number of strong outcomes pulling the projection upward.
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our projection
How to draft him
Harris is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no pick cost to anchor to. His rank is #286 overall and RB63 in a 12-team half-PPR format. At that tier and rank, he is a late-roster addition at best, the kind of name you carry as a handcuff or a speculative stash rather than a building block. His bye is Week 8. Given the negative draft value and the median simulated season of 34.8 points, he belongs at the very back end of a roster, added only after your core is set. The 90th-percentile ceiling of 113.2 points is the only scenario where he contributes meaningfully to a winning week, and reaching it requires everything to break right.
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Questions drafters ask
Yes. He logged 255 rush attempts in 2023 and 263 in 2024, producing over 1,000 rushing yards in each of those seasons. The three-year average across 2023-2025 is 177.7 rush attempts and 713 rush yards per season.
He has shown consistent receiving work in his two full seasons: 29 receptions on 38 targets in 2023, and 36 receptions on 48 targets for 283 yards in 2024. The three-year average is 22.7 receptions and 29.7 targets per season, so the pass-catching contribution is real but not dominant.
The projection is 50.6 half-PPR points. His draft value is -77.8, placing him below replacement level at running back. He ranks RB63 and #286 overall in Tier 9 of the 12-team half-PPR rankings.
Very wide. The 10th-percentile simulated season is 1.1 points and the median is 34.8 points. The 90th-percentile outcome reaches 113.2 points, so the upside exists but the typical simulated season lands well below the 50.6-point projection.
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Beyond the rankings
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