#244 overall · NO · 106.9 projected half-PPR pts · -58.9 Draft Value
Daniel Carlson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Daniel Carlson has been one of the more active kickers in the league over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, averaging 27.3 made field goals and 32.3 attempts per year. His 2024 season stands out: 34 made field goals on 40 attempts, including 7 from 50-plus yards. That long-range volume is the kind of production that separates kickers in half-PPR formats. Even in 2025, when his overall attempt count dipped, he still connected on 5 kicks from 50-plus yards. The three-year average of 25.3 made extra points adds a reliable floor of easy scoring on top of the field goal work. If the New Orleans offense generates red-zone opportunities at a reasonable clip, Carlson's range and attempt history give him a credible path to a productive season.
What the model projects
The projection is 106.9 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits below replacement level for the kicker position, reflected in a draft value of -69.1. He ranks K22 at his position and #254 overall, placing him in Tier 9. The point estimate is modest, and the draftValue signals that the model sees him as a below-replacement option at this stage of the rankings.
| FG | FGM | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 26 | 3 | 32 | 118.0 |
| 2024 | 34 | 6 | 23 | 139.0 |
| 2025 | 22 | 4 | 21 | 99.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 27.3 | 4.3 | 25.3 | 21.0 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which is typical for kickers. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons land at 19.6 points, a near-total collapse in opportunity or efficiency. The 25th percentile is 75.5 points, still a difficult season. The median simulated season comes in at 119.0 points, above the point estimate of 106.9. A strong season at the 75th percentile reaches 135.1 points, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons hit 157.6 points. That upper band is meaningful: a 157.6-point season would represent genuine fantasy value at the position. The gap between the floor and ceiling here is substantial, and the outcome depends heavily on how much scoring volume the Saints offense produces.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Carlson is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. In practice, that means he is available as a late-round or undrafted addition in most 2026 snake drafts. His bye falls in Week 8, worth noting when you are managing your kicker slot through the middle of the season. Given his position rank of K22 and a draft value of -69.1, he is a back-of-roster option at best in standard 12-team formats. If you are targeting a kicker with a track record of high-volume attempts and long-range makes, Carlson's three-year history gives you something to work with, but the projection and rank reflect real downside risk in his current situation.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
He has averaged 27.3 made field goals and 32.3 attempts per year from 2023 through 2025. His peak was 2024, when he made 34 of 40 attempts. Even in his lightest season of the three, 2025, he still made 22 field goals on 27 attempts.
Carlson has been active from distance. In 2024 he made 7 field goals from 50-plus yards. In 2025 he made 5 from that range. In 2023 he made 1. That is 13 makes from 50-plus yards across the three seasons combined.
The projection is 106.9 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks K22 at his position and #254 overall, in Tier 9. His draft value is -69.1, meaning the projection places him below replacement level for the kicker position in a 12-team half-PPR format.
Carlson does not have a market ADP, so he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to have one. He is effectively a late-round or waiver-wire target. His bye week is Week 8.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.