#36 overall · CAR · 160.6 projected half-PPR pts · +32.4 Draft Value · Market ADP 34.8
Tetairoa McMillan — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Tetairoa McMillan's rookie season in Carolina produced 1,014 receiving yards, 70 receptions, 122 targets, and 7 touchdowns. That target volume is the headline: 122 looks in year one signals a clear role at the top of the Panthers' passing game from day one. The touchdown production adds a scoring floor that keeps him relevant in half-PPR formats even in weeks where yardage is modest. His draft value sits at +32.4, meaning the projection places him meaningfully above replacement level at the wide receiver position. He lands at WR14 and #36 overall, inside Tier 7 of the rankings.
What the model projects
The projection for McMillan is 160.6 half-PPR fantasy points. That number reflects a player who enters his second NFL season as an established target share holder in Carolina's offense. At WR14 and #36 overall with a +32.4 draft value surplus, the model places him in a tier of receivers who project as reliable starters in 12-team leagues. His bye week falls in Week 5, which is early enough that most managers can navigate it without significant roster stress.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 122 | 70 | 1014 | 7 | 178.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 122 | 70 | 1014 | 7 | 178.4 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band for McMillan runs from 83.2 points at the 10th percentile to 237.4 at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season lands at 171.2 points, a touch above the 160.6 point estimate. The 25th percentile sits at 126.0 and the 75th at 205.0, which means roughly half of simulated seasons fall in that 79-point window. The downside is real: a bottom-10% outcome at 83.2 points would make him a borderline starter. The upside at 237.4 is a genuine WR1 season. That spread reflects the variance that comes with a young receiver on a developing offense.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
McMillan's market ADP is 34.8, drawn from two platforms, which translates to pick 3.11 in a 12-team snake draft. That means you are spending a third-round pick to secure him. His ranking sits at #36 overall, so the market and the model are closely aligned on where he belongs in the draft order. Plan your first two picks with the expectation that McMillan is your target in the back half of round three. If he slips, take him; if he goes earlier, adjust accordingly. His Week 5 bye is worth noting when you build out your roster depth in the middle rounds.
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Questions drafters ask
He posted 1,014 receiving yards, 70 receptions, 122 targets, and 7 receiving touchdowns in 2025. That is the entirety of his NFL history on record.
The point estimate is 160.6 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season across the outcome band is 171.2 points, so the two numbers are close but not identical. Both are worth knowing: the point estimate is the headline projection, and the median reflects the midpoint of simulated season variance.
The 10th-percentile simulated season lands at 83.2 points. The 25th percentile is 126.0. A bad season for McMillan, by these numbers, looks like a borderline or below-average starter rather than a complete bust, but the low end is a meaningful risk for a third-round investment.
His market ADP is 34.8 across two platforms, which works out to pick 3.11 in a 12-team snake draft. If you want McMillan, budget a third-round pick for him.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.