#34 overall · LV · 154.9 projected half-PPR pts · +35.2 Draft Value · Market ADP 31.8
Brock Bowers — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Brock Bowers is TE1 in these rankings, and the 2024 season is the foundation for that standing. He caught 112 passes on 153 targets for 1,194 receiving yards and five touchdowns in his rookie year, a workload that established him as a genuine focal point of the Las Vegas offense. The 2025 season brought a different stat line: 64 receptions, 86 targets, 680 yards, and seven touchdowns. The touchdown rate climbed even as the volume numbers came down, and the three-year averages across 2023-2025 settle at 88 receptions, 937 receiving yards, and six receiving touchdowns per season. That is the floor the projection is built on. At TE1 with a positive draft value of +35.2 points above replacement, Bowers sits at a tier where the position is rarely this productive this early in a draft.
What the model projects
The projection for Bowers is 154.9 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks #34 overall and TE1, placed in Tier 7. The draft value of +35.2 means he projects meaningfully above the replacement-level tight end in a 12-team half-PPR format. His bye week is 13, which is late enough that it rarely disrupts a playoff push but worth noting for roster management in deeper leagues.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 153 | 112 | 1194 | 5 | 206.7 |
| 2025 | 86 | 64 | 680 | 7 | 142.2 |
| 3-yr avg | 119.5 | 88 | 937 | 6 | 174.5 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which reflects the real variance in his recent history. In a bad season, the bottom 10 percent of simulated outcomes lands at 99.7 points. The 25th percentile is 130.0 points, and the median simulated season comes in at 165.4 points, slightly above the 154.9 point estimate. The 75th percentile is 187.9 points, and a top-10-percent season reaches 215.3 points. The gap between the floor and the ceiling, 99.7 to 215.3, is substantial. Drafters who roster Bowers are accepting real downside risk in exchange for access to the upside that comes with a TE1 projection.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is drafting Bowers at an average pick of 31.8, which works out to pick 3.08 in a 12-team snake draft. That means, in practice, you are spending your third-round pick to secure him. His overall rank is #34 overall, so the market and the model are closely aligned on where he sits. Plan accordingly: if Bowers is your target at tight end, the third round is when you need to commit. Waiting for a later round is a reasonable gamble only if you have a fallback plan at the position, given the drop-off in projected value below TE1. His bye in Week 13 is a minor scheduling note to keep in mind when building out the rest of your roster.
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Questions drafters ask
The market is taking him at pick 31.8, or 3.08 in a 12-team draft. His overall rank is #34 overall and he is TE1 with a draft value of +35.2 points above replacement. Those numbers are closely aligned, so the third-round cost reflects where both the market and the model place him.
In 2024 he posted 153 targets, 112 receptions, 1,194 receiving yards, and five touchdowns. In 2025 those numbers were 86 targets, 64 receptions, 680 receiving yards, and seven touchdowns. Volume fell significantly, but his receiving touchdown total actually increased from five to seven.
The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons lands at 99.7 half-PPR points. The 25th percentile is 130.0 points. Those are the realistic floor scenarios the band describes for a down year.
The 90th percentile of simulated seasons is 215.3 half-PPR points, with the 75th percentile at 187.9. The median simulated season is 165.4 points, and the point projection is 154.9 points.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.