#39 overall · CIN · 157.7 projected half-PPR pts · +29.0 Draft Value · Market ADP 36.6
Tee Higgins — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Tee Higgins has posted back-to-back seasons of genuine WR1 production. In 2024 he caught 73 passes for 911 yards and 10 touchdowns on 109 targets. In 2025 he followed with 59 receptions, 846 yards, and 11 touchdowns on 98 targets. The touchdown rate in particular has been consistent and high. Zoom out to the three-year aggregate and the picture holds: 94.3 targets, 58 receptions, 804.3 receiving yards, and 8.7 receiving touchdowns per season. That is a reliable volume floor with a scoring upside that has materialized in two straight years. His bye falls in Week 6, which is early enough to plan around without disrupting a playoff push.
What the model projects
The projection is 157.7 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits at WR16 and #39 overall, placing Higgins in Tier 7. His draft value is +29.0, meaning the projection lands 29.0 points above the replacement-level baseline for wide receivers in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season lands at 168.3 points, a touch above the point estimate, which reflects a distribution that leans slightly toward the upside.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 76 | 42 | 656 | 5 | — | 116.6 |
| 2024 | 109 | 73 | 911 | 10 | 1 | 185.6 |
| 2025 | 98 | 59 | 846 | 11 | — | 180.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 94.3 | 58 | 804.3 | 8.7 | 0.3 | 161.6 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or below 80.3 points. The 25th percentile is 123.1 points. The median is 168.3. The 75th percentile reaches 202.1, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or above 234.4 points. That is a spread of more than 150 points between the p10 and p90, which signals meaningful season-to-season variance. The floor is real, but so is the ceiling. A drafter who lands the p75-to-p90 version gets a weekly starter who outperforms his draft cost; the p10 version is a roster problem.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP has Higgins going at pick 36.6, which works out to the 4th round, 1st pick in a 12-team snake draft. That is the window where you need to be ready to spend a pick if you want him on your roster. He sits at #39 overall in the rankings, so the market and the model are closely aligned at this price. Target him in the fourth round if your first three picks have addressed other positions and you want a receiver with a three-year track record of high-end target volume and double-digit touchdown potential.
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Questions drafters ask
Over the 2023-2025 span he averaged 94.3 targets, 58 receptions, 804.3 receiving yards, and 8.7 receiving touchdowns per season. His best individual season was 2024, when he posted 109 targets, 73 catches, 911 yards, and 10 touchdowns. In 2025 he added 11 receiving touchdowns on 98 targets.
The projection is 157.7 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks WR16 at the position level and #39 overall, placing him in Tier 7 with a draft value of +29.0 points above replacement.
The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or below 80.3 points. The median simulated season is 168.3 points. The top 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or above 234.4 points. The spread from p10 to p90 exceeds 150 points, so the range of outcomes is genuinely wide in both directions.
Market ADP puts him at pick 36.6, which is the 1st pick of the 4th round in a 12-team draft. If you want Higgins, that is the round where you need to commit a pick.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.