#38 overall · PIT · 157.2 projected half-PPR pts · +29.9 Draft Value · Market ADP 65.4
Jaylen Warren — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jaylen Warren's 2025 season is the clearest argument for his value. He carried the ball 211 times for 958 rushing yards, added 40 receptions for 333 receiving yards, and scored 8 total touchdowns, 6 rushing and 2 receiving. That is the most productive single season in his three-year sample and the one that pushed his three-year rushing average to 751 yards and 160 attempts per season. The receiving work has been consistent across all three years: 55.3 targets and 46.3 receptions per season on average, with receiving yardage holding in a tight band of 310 to 370 yards in each of the two prior seasons. The fumble situation also improved in 2025, down to 1 fumble and 1 lost fumble after a rougher 2023. Warren is a back who contributes in both phases, and his three-year track record shows that floor is real.
What the model projects
The projection is 157.2 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits at RB20 by position rank and #38 overall, placing Warren in Tier 7. His draft value is +29.9 points above replacement level at the running back position, meaning the projection puts him meaningfully above what a freely available replacement would provide. The median simulated season lands at 166.7 points, slightly above the point estimate, which reflects the shape of the outcome distribution.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 149 | 784 | 4 | 74 | 61 | 370 | — | 4 | 165.9 |
| 2024 | 120 | 511 | 1 | 47 | 38 | 310 | — | 2 | 105.1 |
| 2025 | 211 | 958 | 6 | 45 | 40 | 333 | 2 | 1 | 197.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 160 | 751 | 3.7 | 55.3 | 46.3 | 337.7 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 158.4 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the bottom 10% of simulated seasons, Warren finishes at 64.4 points, a number that reflects how badly a worst-case scenario can compress a running back's production. The 25th percentile is 112.0 points, still a below-replacement outcome in most leagues. The median sits at 166.7 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile is 214.2 points and the 90th percentile reaches 249.8 points. The distance from the p10 to the p90 is 185.4 points, which is a substantial spread. Drafters buying Warren are accepting real downside variance in exchange for a ceiling that clears 249 points in the best 10% of seasons. His 2025 season, with 211 carries and 8 touchdowns, gives a concrete picture of what the upper end of that band looks like in practice.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is drafting Warren at pick 65.4 on average, which works out to the 5th pick of Round 6 in a 12-team draft. That is the window where you need to be ready to spend a pick if you want him. His bye is Week 9, which is worth noting for roster management but is not a reason to avoid him. At RB20 with a +29.9 draft value surplus, he is a back who clears replacement level by a meaningful margin. The wide outcome band means the range of what you are getting is real, so drafters should enter Round 6 with a clear sense of how much running back depth they already hold before committing a pick here.
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Questions drafters ask
Warren carried the ball 211 times for 958 rushing yards and 6 rushing touchdowns, caught 40 passes on 45 targets for 333 receiving yards and 2 receiving touchdowns, and fumbled just once all season.
The projection is 157.2 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks RB20 by position and #38 overall, placing him in Tier 7 with a draft value of +29.9 points above replacement.
The bottom 10% of simulated seasons lands at 64.4 points and the 25th percentile is 112.0 points. The outcome band is wide, so a bad-case scenario can significantly undercut the 157.2-point projection.
The market average is pick 65.4, which is the 5th pick of Round 6 in a 12-team draft. That is the pick you need to spend if you want Warren on your roster.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
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