#260 overall · TB · 53.2 projected half-PPR pts · -62.0 Draft Value
Ted Hurst — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Ted Hurst is a Tampa Bay wide receiver sitting at WR95 and #281 overall in a Tier 9 grouping. At those numbers, the case for drafting him in a standard 12-team snake draft is narrow. His projected points of 53.2 and a draft value of -75.4 place him well below replacement level at the position. The honest case is a late-roster flier: if something breaks right, the upside band shows he can produce at a usable level, and his bye falls on Week 10, which is manageable for a depth piece. Drafters who want a cheap WR stash late in a draft will find him in that conversation, but the facts do not support a stronger argument than that.
What the model projects
The projection for Hurst is 53.2 half-PPR fantasy points. That is the headline number. His draft value is -75.4, meaning the projection sits 75.4 points below the replacement-level baseline for wide receivers in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks WR95 at the position and #281 overall, both in Tier 9. These are the numbers as they stand.
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which is the defining characteristic of a player at this tier. In the bottom 10% of simulated seasons, Hurst finishes at 1.5 points. The 25th percentile lands at 14.6 points and the median simulated season comes in at 35.0 points, well below the projection's point estimate of 53.2. The 75th percentile reaches 68.0 points and the top 10% of simulated seasons produces 110.2 points. That upper tail is real, but the median and lower percentiles make clear how often the floor gets visited. The gap between the p50 and p90 is large; the gap between the p10 and p50 is nearly as telling.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Hurst does not have a market ADP across public 2026 draft platforms, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough to register a median pick number. In a 12-team snake draft, that puts him in undrafted or very late waiver-wire territory. If you want him on your roster, he is likely available after the draft concludes. There is no pick cost to weigh here; the question is simply whether he belongs on your watch list heading into the season.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 53.2 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -75.4, placing him 75.4 points below replacement level at wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR format.
The top 10% of simulated seasons produces 110.2 points. The 75th percentile lands at 68.0 points. Those are the upper-end outcomes the band supports.
Hurst does not have a market ADP across public 2026 draft platforms. He is not being drafted consistently enough to register a median pick number, so he is likely available as an undrafted free agent after your draft ends.
The bottom 10% of simulated seasons finishes at 1.5 points, and the 25th percentile sits at 14.6 points. The downside is severe and represents a meaningful portion of his simulated outcomes.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.