#258 overall · TB · 53.5 projected half-PPR pts · -61.8 Draft Value
Tez Johnson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Tez Johnson's 2025 season with Tampa Bay produced 28 receptions on 44 targets for 322 receiving yards and 5 receiving touchdowns, along with 7 rush attempts for 22 yards. The touchdown rate relative to his target volume is the most compelling number in his line. Five scores on 44 targets is a rate that keeps a receiver relevant in half-PPR formats even when raw yardage is modest. That production also represents his entire three-year statistical footprint, meaning every yard and every score he has ever accumulated at the NFL level came in 2025. There is no prior-season noise to discount. What you see is the complete picture.
What the model projects
The projection is 53.5 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. Johnson sits at #272 overall and WR92, placing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -75.4, which is below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection reflects a player operating at the outer edge of the rankable universe. His bye week is Week 10.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 44 | 28 | 322 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 78.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 44 | 28 | 322 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 78.4 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide and skewed. The p10 outcome is 1.6 points, meaning the bottom 10% of simulated seasons essentially produce nothing. The p25 sits at 14.8 points and the median p50 is 35.3 points, both well below the 53.5-point projection, which signals the distribution pulls right. The p75 reaches 68.4 points and the p90 climbs to 110.7 points. That top-decile outcome is more than double the projection and more than three times the median. The gap between the p50 and p90 is the story here: Johnson's ceiling in a favorable simulated season is real, but the typical simulated season lands well short of the headline number. Drafters should treat the 53.5 projection as a number pulled upward by a long right tail, not a floor.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Johnson does not have a market ADP across public 2026 draft platforms, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough to register a median pick. At WR92 and #272 overall with a negative draft value, he belongs on the deepest end of rosters, if at all. The case for rostering him is the p90 outcome of 110.7 points and a touchdown-to-target rate from 2025 that could repeat in a larger role. The case against is a median simulated season of 35.3 points and a draft value of -75.4. In a 12-team half-PPR snake draft, he is a late-round flier or a waiver-wire name, not a pick you plan around.
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Questions drafters ask
He has no market ADP, meaning public drafts are not consistently pricing him in at all. The model projects 53.5 points with a draft value of -75.4, placing him at WR92 and #272 overall in Tier 9. His median simulated season is 35.3 points. The numbers put him below replacement level, so any pick spent on him is a speculative one.
He caught 28 of 44 targets for 322 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns, adding 7 rush attempts for 22 yards. Those are also his career totals through three seasons, as his three-year aggregate stats are identical to his 2025 line.
The p90 simulated outcome is 110.7 half-PPR points, which represents the top 10% of his simulated seasons. The p75 outcome is 68.4 points. Both figures are meaningfully above the 53.5-point projection, reflecting a right-skewed distribution where a high-end season is possible but not the most likely result.
The median simulated season (p50) is 35.3 points, which is notably below the 53.5-point projection. The p25 is 14.8 points and the p10 is just 1.6 points. The projection sits above the median because the distribution has a long upside tail, so the typical simulated season for Johnson lands well under the headline number.
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Beyond the rankings
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