#259 overall · BUF · 48.4 projected half-PPR pts · -61.8 Draft Value
Ray Davis — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Ray Davis logged 113 rush attempts, 19 targets, 17 receptions, 442 rush yards, 189 receiving yards, and six total touchdowns in 2024. That is a real workload for a Buffalo back, and the receiving contribution is genuine: 19 targets on 113 carries is a respectable catch rate for a running back in a pass-heavy offense. His 2025 line was smaller across the board, with 58 rush attempts, 275 rush yards, 13 targets, 10 receptions, 86 receiving yards, and 2 receiving touchdowns, but the touch-to-reception ratio held. The three-year averages tell a consistent story: 85.5 rush attempts, 16 targets, 13.5 receptions, 358.5 rush yards, 137.5 receiving yards, 1.5 rush touchdowns, and 2.5 receiving touchdowns per season. Davis is a back who catches passes and scores, and those traits keep him relevant in half-PPR formats even when the volume is modest.
What the model projects
The projection is 59.1 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. His draft value sits at -69.3, placing him #255 overall and RB56. He is a Tier 9 player. At that projection and that rank, Davis is below replacement level at the position in a standard 12-team half-PPR format. The numbers reflect a back whose role is real but limited, and whose fantasy ceiling in a typical season is modest.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 113 | 442 | 3 | 19 | 17 | 189 | 3 | 107.6 |
| 2025 | 58 | 275 | — | 13 | 10 | 86 | 2 | 53.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 85.5 | 358.5 | 1.5 | 16 | 13.5 | 137.5 | 2.5 | 80.4 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide relative to the projection, which signals meaningful variance. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons land at 4.4 points. The 25th percentile is 19.4 points. The median simulated season is 46.9 points, which is notably below the 59.1 point estimate. The 75th percentile reaches 88.1 points, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at 128.6 points. That p90 outcome is more than double the point estimate, meaning the upside scenario is a legitimate fantasy contributor. The downside scenario is near-zero fantasy value. Davis is a high-variance, low-floor option: most seasons he does not return meaningful fantasy value, but the ceiling exists.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Davis does not have a market ADP available, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce a reliable median pick number. At RB56 and #255 overall with a negative draft value, he belongs at the very back end of drafts or on the waiver wire. The case for rostering him is the p90 outcome: 128.6 points is a usable season from a late-round or undrafted back. His bye is Week 7. If you are building depth at running back and need a receiver-friendly option with touchdown upside, Davis is a name to keep in mind at the end of your draft or after it.
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Questions drafters ask
Davis carried the ball 113 times for 442 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns, while adding 17 receptions on 19 targets for 189 receiving yards and 3 receiving touchdowns. That is six total touchdowns and a genuine dual-threat role.
The projection is 59.1 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks #255 overall and RB56 with a draft value of -69.3, placing him in Tier 9.
The band runs from 4.4 points at the 10th percentile to 128.6 points at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 46.9 points. The upside is real but the floor is near zero, so Davis is a high-variance option.
Davis does not have a market ADP, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce a reliable pick number. At RB56 and #255 overall, he is a late-roster or post-draft target.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
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