#261 overall · CHI · 53.1 projected half-PPR pts · -62.2 Draft Value
Zavion Thomas — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Zavion Thomas is a wide receiver on the Chicago Bears with a bye in Week 10. At WR96 and #282 overall, he sits deep in Tier 9, well outside the range where most drafters are spending meaningful picks. The case for him is simple and narrow: late-round roster construction. In deeper leagues or formats that reward roster depth, a receiver at this tier costs almost nothing to add, and the upside band shows that a strong season is not impossible, even if it is unlikely.
What the model projects
The projection is 53.1 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. The draft value is -75.1, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. That is the headline: Thomas projects as a below-replacement-level option at his position in this format.
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide and skewed. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons land at or below 1.4 points. The 25th percentile is 14.5 points and the median simulated season is 34.9 points, both well below the 53.1 point projection. The 75th percentile reaches 67.9 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons finish at or above 110.2 points. That gap between the median and the 90th percentile is substantial, which tells you the distribution is long-tailed: most simulated seasons are quiet, but a small share produce a genuinely usable fantasy contributor.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Thomas does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough on major platforms to produce one. In practice, he is a free agent in most drafts. If you want him on your roster, you can likely claim him off waivers rather than spending a pick. In leagues where that is not an option, he belongs at the very end of a draft, if at all, with no expectation of a weekly role and only the long tail of his outcome band as justification.
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Questions drafters ask
His draft value is -75.1, placing him below replacement level at wide receiver, ranked WR96 and #282 overall in Tier 9. He has no market ADP across public 2026 drafts, meaning most drafters are not spending a pick on him at all. He is a late-flier or waiver-wire target at best.
The top 10% of his simulated seasons finish at or above 110.2 half-PPR points. However, the median simulated season is only 34.9 points and the 25th percentile is 14.5, so the strong outcomes are in the minority. The distribution is heavily skewed toward low-output seasons.
The projection is 53.1 half-PPR fantasy points. Note that the median simulated season (34.9 points) is notably lower than the point estimate, reflecting the skewed nature of his outcome band.
He has no available market ADP, meaning he is not being consistently drafted on major platforms. In most leagues he will be available on waivers. If you are in a format where you must draft him, he belongs at the very tail end of the draft, in the range consistent with his #282 overall ranking.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.