#147 overall · TB · 117.9 projected half-PPR pts · -27.9 Draft Value
Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The case is thin, and the facts say so plainly. Tampa Bay sits at DST14 with a negative draft value, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the position. That is the ceiling the numbers describe, not a floor to build optimism around. What the three-year history does show is a unit that has been consistently active in the turnover game. From 2023 through 2025, Tampa Bay averaged 11.0 interceptions, 11.0 fumble recoveries, and 15.3 forced fumbles per season. The 2023 and 2025 seasons each produced 13 interceptions. Sacks have averaged 43.3 over that same stretch, with 47 in 2023 and 46 in 2024. The big-play ceiling is real, even if the overall projection does not reward it at this tier.
What the model projects
The projection is 117.9 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. The draft value is -27.9, placing Tampa Bay #147 overall and DST14 in a 12-team half-PPR format. The unit sits in Tier 9. The three-year scoring average against tells part of the story: 325 points allowed in 2023, 385 in 2024, and 411 in 2025, for a three-year average of 373.7. Points allowed is one of the cleaner inputs into DST fantasy scoring, and that trend runs in the wrong direction. The sack total also slipped to 37 in 2025 after back-to-back seasons above 46. The projection reflects where those numbers have landed.
| Sacks | INT | FF | FR | TD | Saf | PA | PA 0 | PA 1-6 | PA 7-13 | PA 14-20 | PA 21-27 | PA 28-34 | PA 35+ | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 47 | 13 | 18 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 325 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | — | 1 | 150.0 |
| 2024 | 46 | 7 | 16 | 11 | 1 | — | 385 | — | — | 2 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 108.0 |
| 2025 | 37 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 411 | — | 1 | — | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 110.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 43.3 | 11 | 15.3 | 11 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 373.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 111.8 |
The range of outcomes
No simulation band is available in the facts for this unit, so the honest answer is that the projection of 117.9 points is the single number on the table. What the history does illustrate is that game-to-game variance is real. In 2025, Tampa Bay allowed 35 or more points in two games and held opponents to six or fewer in one. In 2023, the unit posted a shutout and a safety alongside a 35-plus-point allowed game. That kind of spread across individual games is typical of DST scoring, where a single turnover returned for a touchdown can swing a week dramatically. The three-year touchdown average of 1.3 per season and the interception average of 11.0 confirm the unit finds the ball; converting those into fantasy-relevant scores is the variable that drives the high end of any single-season outcome.
How to draft him
Market ADP is unavailable for Tampa Bay DST, meaning the unit is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce a reliable median pick number. There is no market signal to report. What the rankings say is straightforward: DST14 in Tier 9 at #147 overall is a late-round target at best, and only in leagues where a drafter wants a streaming option with a credible turnover floor. The bye is Week 10, which is worth noting for roster planning. At this rank, Tampa Bay is a depth consideration, not a foundational piece of a fantasy roster.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection of 117.9 points and a draft value of -27.9 place the unit below replacement level at the position, ranking DST14 and #147 overall in Tier 9. The numbers describe a streaming-level option, not a starter to build around.
Consistently active. The unit averaged 11.0 interceptions, 11.0 fumble recoveries, 15.3 forced fumbles, and 43.3 sacks per season from 2023 through 2025. The 2023 and 2025 seasons each produced 13 interceptions, and sacks were 47 and 46 in those same two years before dropping to 37 in 2025.
Points allowed rose each season: 325 in 2023, 385 in 2024, and 411 in 2025, for a three-year average of 373.7. Points allowed is a direct input into DST fantasy scoring, and a rising trend in that number is a headwind for the projection.
Market ADP is unavailable, so there is no consistent draft-slot signal from public drafts. The rankings place the unit at #147 overall, which corresponds to late-draft territory. The bye week is Week 10, worth factoring into any streaming plan.
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Beyond the rankings
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