#93 overall · SEA · 103.4 projected half-PPR pts · -6.8 Draft Value
Zach Charbonnet — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Zach Charbonnet's 2025 season was the clearest statement of his role to date. He carried the ball 184 times for 730 yards and scored 12 rushing touchdowns, all career highs. That touchdown volume is the headline: 12 scores on the ground in a single season is a real workload signal, and it came on top of the 8 rushing touchdowns he posted in 2024. Over three seasons his rushing attempts have climbed steadily, from 108 in 2023 to 135 in 2024 to 184 in 2025. The three-year average sits at 142.3 carries, 587 rushing yards, and 7 rushing touchdowns per season, but the trajectory points upward, not toward the mean. His receiving work has been more variable. He caught 42 balls for 340 yards in 2024, then saw that volume compress to 20 receptions for 144 yards in 2025. The three-year average of 31.7 receptions and 38.7 targets per season reflects a back who can contribute in the passing game when the role is there.
What the model projects
The projection is 103.3 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. His draftValue is -26.2, placing him #138 overall and RB35 in Tier 9. A negative draftValue means the projection sits below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season, at 104.3 points, lands almost exactly on the point estimate, which signals a relatively symmetric distribution around the projection. His bye week is Week 11.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 108 | 462 | 1 | 40 | 33 | 209 | — | 89.6 |
| 2024 | 135 | 569 | 8 | 52 | 42 | 340 | 1 | 165.9 |
| 2025 | 184 | 730 | 12 | 24 | 20 | 144 | — | 169.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 142.3 | 587 | 7 | 38.7 | 31.7 | 231 | 0.3 | 141.5 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons produces just 27.5 points, a near-total loss of fantasy value. The 25th percentile comes in at 58.7 points, still a significant step down from the projection. The median sits at 104.3 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 148.3 points and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons lands at 193.5 points. That 193.5-point ceiling is meaningful for a player projected at 103.3, and it reflects the kind of touchdown-dependent profile Charbonnet has shown. His 2025 rushing touchdown total of 12 demonstrates what the ceiling looks like when scoring opportunities concentrate. The floor, however, is real: the gap between the p10 and p90 outcomes spans 166 points, which is a wide band for a back at this projection level.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is drafting Charbonnet at an average pick of 136.3, which works out to pick 12.04 in a 12-team snake draft. That is a late-round selection, consistent with his #138 overall rank and RB35 position rank. At that draft slot he is a depth piece, not a foundational pick. The wide outcome band is the central drafting reality: the floor is severe and the ceiling is legitimate, so he fits best as a high-variance late-round add on a roster that already has stable production locked in earlier. His Week 11 bye is worth noting for lineup planning. With two platforms feeding the ADP median, treat the 12.04 figure as a reasonable but not deeply liquid market signal.
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Questions drafters ask
He carried the ball 184 times for 730 yards and scored 12 rushing touchdowns in 2025, all three figures career highs.
The projection is 103.3 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks #138 overall and RB35, placed in Tier 9, with a draftValue of -26.2.
The simulated season band runs from 27.5 points at the 10th percentile to 193.5 points at the 90th percentile, with a median of 104.3 points.
The market ADP is 136.3, which translates to pick 12.04 in a 12-team snake draft, a late-round selection in line with his #138 overall rank.
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Beyond the rankings
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