#90 overall · WAS · 110.3 projected half-PPR pts · -4.9 Draft Value
Stefon Diggs — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Stefon Diggs brings a three-year track record that includes a 2023 season of 160 targets, 107 receptions, 1,183 receiving yards, and 8 touchdowns. That kind of target volume is a real foundation. His 2025 season showed a meaningful bounce-back: 102 targets, 85 receptions, and 1,013 receiving yards, clearing the 1,000-yard mark with 4 receiving touchdowns. The three-year average across 2023-2025 sits at 108.7 targets, 79.7 receptions, and 897.3 receiving yards per season with 5 receiving touchdowns. For a drafter willing to take a late-round flier on a receiver with demonstrated target-share history, the floor of that resume is not nothing. His bye is Week 7.
What the model projects
The projection for Diggs is 118.2 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -10.6, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. That places him at WR43 and #98 overall, inside Tier 9.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 160 | 107 | 1183 | 8 | 1 | 5 | — | 2 | 218.3 |
| 2024 | 64 | 47 | 496 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 1 | — | 98.4 |
| 2025 | 102 | 85 | 1013 | 4 | — | — | — | — | 167.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 108.7 | 79.7 | 897.3 | 5 | 1.3 | 4.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 162.0 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. At the 10th percentile, Diggs finishes at 44.3 points, a near-irrelevant fantasy season. The 25th percentile lands at 75.9 points. The median simulated season comes in at 114.2 points, close to but slightly below the 118.2 point estimate. The 75th percentile reaches 149.3 points, and the 90th percentile tops out at 191.7 points. That upper tail represents a genuinely useful fantasy contributor; the lower tail does not. The spread from p10 to p90 covers 147.4 points, which signals substantial season-to-season variance in outcomes. The 2024 season, in which Diggs posted only 64 targets, 47 receptions, and 496 receiving yards, illustrates that the downside is real and has already materialized once in this three-year window.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is currently drafting Diggs at pick 103.4 on average, a median drawn from two platforms, which translates to the 9th round, 7th pick in a 12-team draft (9.07). The model has him at #98 overall. At that draft slot, he is a depth or bench option, not a starter you are counting on from day one. Given the negative draft value and the wide outcome band, the realistic use case is as a late-round speculative add: if the 2025 target volume holds and the touchdown rate climbs toward his 2023 pace, the 90th-percentile outcome at 191.7 points becomes meaningful. If it does not, the 44.3-point floor is a real possibility. Draft him with that range in mind, not as a locked-in starter.
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Questions drafters ask
The model projects him at 118.2 points with a draft value of -10.6, placing him below replacement level at WR43 and #98 overall in Tier 9. He is a speculative late-round option, not a core starter, but his three-year average of 108.7 targets and 897.3 receiving yards per season shows the target-share upside is real if things break right.
2023 was his strongest recent season: 160 targets, 107 receptions, 1,183 yards, and 8 touchdowns. 2024 dropped sharply to 64 targets, 47 receptions, and 496 yards. He rebounded in 2025 with 102 targets, 85 receptions, 1,013 yards, and 4 touchdowns. The three-year averages are 108.7 targets, 79.7 receptions, 897.3 yards, and 5 receiving touchdowns per season.
The market median across two platforms is pick 103.4, which is round 9, pick 7 in a 12-team draft. If you want him, that is roughly when you need to spend the pick.
Very wide. The 10th-percentile simulated season is 44.3 points; the 90th percentile is 191.7 points. The median simulated season is 114.2 points. That 147.4-point spread from bottom to top means the difference between a near-useless season and a genuinely productive one is substantial, and both ends have precedent in his recent history.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.