#91 overall · DAL · 241.9 projected half-PPR pts · -5.9 Draft Value
Dak Prescott — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Dak Prescott's two full seasons on record tell a consistent story. In 2023 he threw for 4,516 yards and 36 touchdowns on 590 attempts, adding 242 rushing yards and 2 rushing scores on 55 carries. In 2025 he was nearly identical in volume: 4,552 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, 600 attempts, 177 rushing yards, and 2 more rushing scores. The three-year averages across 2023-2025 settle at 3,682 passing yards, 25.7 passing touchdowns, 1.7 rushing touchdowns, and 157.7 rushing yards per season, with the full-season years anchoring the top end of that range. For a drafter looking at QB5 production, those full-season lines are the floor of what this offense can generate.
What the model projects
The projection is 265.1 half-PPR fantasy points, which places Prescott #66 overall and QB5 in Tier 8. His draft value sits at +4.2, meaning the projection lands above replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 260.6 points, just below the point estimate, which reflects a distribution that is slightly right-skewed. His bye week is 14.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 590 | 410 | 4516 | 36 | 9 | 55 | 242 | 2 | 3 | 347.8 |
| 2024 | 286 | 185 | 1978 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 54 | 1 | 4 | 124.5 |
| 2025 | 600 | 404 | 4552 | 30 | 10 | 53 | 177 | 2 | 6 | 317.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 492 | 333 | 3682 | 25.7 | 9 | 40.3 | 157.7 | 1.7 | 4.3 | 267.0 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated outcome band is wide. At the bottom 10% of seasons (p10), Prescott finishes at 110.2 points, a number consistent with the truncated 2024 line of 1,978 passing yards, 11 passing touchdowns, and 13 rush attempts across a shortened sample. The 25th percentile lands at 201.7 points. The median is 260.6. The 75th percentile reaches 322.2, and the top 10% of seasons (p90) projects to 370.7 points. That is a spread of roughly 260 points between the p10 and p90, which is among the wider bands you will see at the position. The 2024 season is the clearest illustration of the downside scenario; the 2023 and 2025 lines illustrate what the upside looks like in practice. Fumbles are a consistent factor: he has lost at least 1 fumble in each of the last three seasons, with a three-year average of 4.3 fumbles and 1.7 lost per year.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is currently taking Prescott at pick 74.8 on average, which works out to the 3rd pick of the 7th round in a 12-team draft (7.03). That is the window a drafter needs to plan around. At QB5 with a +4.2 draft value, he is a viable late-round quarterback target for drafters running a wait-at-QB strategy. The wide outcome band means the upside in a good season is real, but so is the floor risk illustrated by the 2024 sample. Drafters who want the full-season version of Prescott need to be prepared to spend a mid-to-late-round pick to get him, and should have a contingency in mind given how far the p10 sits from the projection.
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Questions drafters ask
He projects at 265.1 points as QB5, with a +4.2 draft value above replacement level. His two full seasons in 2023 and 2025 both produced over 4,500 passing yards and at least 30 passing touchdowns, so the production floor in a healthy season is established. The risk is the outcome band: the p10 sits at 110.2 points, a reminder that the 2024 sample exists. If you are comfortable with that variance, the projection supports him as a starter.
The market ADP is 74.8, which translates to pick 7.03 in a 12-team draft. That is the 3rd pick of the 7th round. Plan to spend a pick in that range if you want him.
The simulated band runs from 110.2 points at the 10th percentile to 370.7 at the 90th percentile. The median is 260.6. That is a roughly 260-point spread between the worst and best 10% of projected seasons, which reflects meaningful season-to-season variance.
Over the three seasons from 2023 to 2025, Prescott averaged 492 pass attempts, 3,682 passing yards, 25.7 passing touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 40.3 rush attempts, 157.7 rushing yards, and 1.7 rushing touchdowns per season. The 2023 and 2025 full-season lines are the high-water marks; the 2024 line covers a much smaller sample of 286 attempts, 1,978 yards, and 11 passing touchdowns.
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Beyond the rankings
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Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.