#88 overall · PIT · 111.5 projected half-PPR pts · -3.8 Draft Value
Michael Pittman — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Michael Pittman is now a Pittsburgh Steeler, and the case for him starts with volume. Over the past three seasons he has averaged 126 targets and 86 receptions per year. In 2023 he saw 156 targets and hauled in 109 catches for 1,152 yards. Even in the two seasons that followed, he cleared 111 targets each time. That kind of target floor is real, and it does not disappear just because the uniform changed. His touchdown rate has also climbed: seven receiving touchdowns in 2025 after three in 2024 and four in 2023, for a three-year average of 4.7 per season. Pittman is a high-volume receiver with a recent scoring uptick, and those two things together are what keep a wide receiver relevant in half-PPR formats.
What the model projects
The projection is 125.7 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits almost exactly on his three-year average of 914.7 receiving yards and 4.7 touchdowns per season, which makes it a reasonable anchor. His draft value is -3.2, meaning he projects just below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks #81 overall and WR36, and he sits in Tier 9. The median simulated season lands at 125.0 points, nearly identical to the point estimate, which signals a relatively symmetric distribution around the projection.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 156 | 109 | 1152 | 4 | 1 | 193.7 |
| 2024 | 111 | 69 | 808 | 3 | 1 | 131.3 |
| 2025 | 111 | 80 | 784 | 7 | — | 160.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 126 | 86 | 914.7 | 4.7 | 0.7 | 162.7 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or below 50.9 points, and the 25th percentile is 85.1. On the upside, the 75th percentile reaches 159.9 points and the 90th percentile hits 200.0. That is a spread of roughly 149 points from the bottom decile to the top decile, which reflects genuine uncertainty about how his role develops in Pittsburgh. A season near the 90th percentile would look a lot like his 2023 production. A season near the 10th percentile would be a near-total bust. The median outcome at 125.0 points is serviceable but not difference-making at WR36.
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our projection
How to draft him
The market is currently taking Pittman at pick 92.5, which works out to round 8, pick 8 in a 12-team draft. That is the window you are working with if you want him. He carries a bye in Week 9, so factor that into your roster construction if you pick him up in the eighth round. At WR36 with a negative draft value, he profiles as a depth piece or a high-upside flex option rather than a starter you can count on every week. His 90th-percentile ceiling of 200.0 points gives him a reason to be on your roster; his 10th-percentile floor of 50.9 points is the risk you are accepting when you spend that pick.
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Questions drafters ask
Yes. He saw 156 targets in 2023, 111 in 2024, and 111 in 2025, for a three-year average of 126 per season. That is a consistent volume floor regardless of the year.
The 90th-percentile simulated outcome is 200.0 half-PPR points. Only 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or above that number, so it is achievable but not the base case.
Below. His draft value is -3.2, meaning the projection of 125.7 points falls just short of replacement level at wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks WR36 and #81 overall.
The market is taking him at an average of pick 92.5, which is round 8, pick 8 in a 12-team draft. That is the pick you would need to spend to secure him before he is gone.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
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