#57 overall · CAR · 137.1 projected half-PPR pts · +9.2 Draft Value · Market ADP 78.6
Chuba Hubbard — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Chuba Hubbard has back-to-back seasons of 238 and 250 rush attempts, and in 2024 he turned that workload into 1,195 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. The receiving work is real too: 54 targets, 43 receptions, and 171 receiving yards in 2024, following 44 targets, 39 receptions, and 233 receiving yards in 2023. Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he averages 207.3 rush attempts, 37.3 receptions, 45.7 targets, and 869.3 rushing yards per year. That is a high-volume, three-down profile. When the touches are there, the production follows. The 2025 line of 134 rush attempts and 511 rushing yards is a reduced stat line, but the three-year aggregate still reflects a back who has seen consistent, heavy usage across two full seasons. A positive draft value of +9.2 points confirms he projects above replacement level at the position heading into 2026.
What the model projects
The projection is 137.1 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That places Hubbard at #57 overall and RB27, sitting in Tier 8 of the rankings. The draft value of +9.2 means he projects above the replacement-level baseline for running backs in a 12-team half-PPR format. His bye week is Week 5.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 238 | 902 | 5 | 44 | 39 | 233 | — | 1 | 163.0 |
| 2024 | 250 | 1195 | 10 | 54 | 43 | 171 | 1 | 4 | 218.1 |
| 2025 | 134 | 511 | 1 | 39 | 30 | 223 | 3 | 1 | 110.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 207.3 | 869.3 | 5.3 | 45.7 | 37.3 | 209 | 1.3 | 2 | 166.1 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which is the honest story here. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10% of simulated seasons land at or below 50.6 points. The 25th percentile is 92.1 points. The median simulated season comes in at 143.4 points, close to but slightly above the 137.1 point projection. The 75th percentile reaches 189.7 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons finish at or above 228.9 points. That is a spread of roughly 178 points from the p10 to the p90. The floor is genuinely low; the ceiling is a weekly starter with upside. The fumble history is worth noting: 4 fumbles and 3 lost in 2024, 1 fumble in each of 2023 and 2025, for an average of 2 fumbles per season over the three-year window. That is a real risk embedded in the downside tail.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is currently drafting Hubbard at an average pick of 78.6, which works out to pick 7.07 in a 12-team snake draft. That is Round 7, seventh pick. Our rankings place him at #57 overall and RB27. Plan accordingly: if you want him, Round 7 is where the market is pricing him. His Week 5 bye is early enough that it should not factor heavily into draft-day decisions, but it is worth noting when building your roster depth.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
In 2023 he logged 238 rush attempts and 44 targets. In 2024 that grew to 250 rush attempts and 54 targets. The 2025 season shows 134 rush attempts and 39 targets. The three-year average is 207.3 rush attempts and 45.7 targets per season, reflecting a consistent role as a featured back when healthy and active.
The 90th-percentile simulated season lands at 228.9 half-PPR points. For context, the 2024 season produced 1,195 rushing yards, 10 rushing touchdowns, 43 receptions, and 171 receiving yards, which represents the kind of output that drives the top end of the band.
The bottom 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 50.6 points. The 2025 season, with 134 rush attempts, 511 rushing yards, and 4 combined touchdowns, illustrates what a reduced workload looks like in practice. The fumble history adds to the downside risk: he averaged 2 fumbles per season over the 2023-2025 window, with 3 fumbles lost in 2024 alone.
The market average is pick 78.6, or Round 7, pick 7 in a 12-team draft. Our rankings have him at #57 overall and RB27 in Tier 8. If you are targeting him, Round 7 is the current market price.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.