#81 overall · CHI · 114.0 projected half-PPR pts · -1.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 53.1
Colston Loveland — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Colston Loveland's 2025 rookie season gave drafters a clean look at what he is: a volume-friendly tight end who earned 82 targets, converted 58 of them into receptions, piled up 713 receiving yards, and found the end zone six times. That catch rate and that target share are the foundation. The three-year aggregate stats are identical to the single-season line, which tells you everything you need to know about his NFL experience level — this is a one-year sample, and it already checks the boxes that matter at the position. He sits at TE4 in the rankings with a positive draft value of +10.6, meaning the projection puts him above replacement level at tight end. For a player entering his second season, that combination of rookie production and a clear path to continued targets in Chicago is the core of the case.
What the model projects
The projection for Loveland is 131.0 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits him at TE4 and #57 overall, inside Tier 8 of the rankings. His draft value of +10.6 reflects a projection above the replacement-level baseline at tight end in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate of 131.0 is the headline number to anchor your planning around. His bye week is 10.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 82 | 58 | 713 | 6 | 136.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 82 | 58 | 713 | 6 | 136.1 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band for Loveland is wide, which is consistent with a second-year player whose role could expand or contract. In a bad season — the bottom 10% of simulated outcomes — he finishes at 75.8 points. The 25th percentile lands at 106.2, and the median simulated season comes in at 141.5 points, a touch above the 131.0 point estimate. The 75th percentile is 163.9, and a top-10% breakout season reaches 191.4 points. The gap between the floor and the ceiling is substantial: roughly 116 points separates the p10 from the p90. That spread reflects real variance in how a young tight end's second season can unfold. The upside at 191.4 is meaningful; the floor at 75.8 is a genuine risk to price in.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Loveland's market ADP is 52.0, which works out to pick 5.04 in a 12-team snake draft — early in the fifth round. That is where the market is currently spending to land him, based on a median across two platforms. The model has him at #57 overall and TE4. If you want him, the fifth round is when you need to commit. His bye in Week 10 is worth noting for roster management, but it should not drive the decision. The wide outcome band means the player you get could look very different from the 131.0 projection in either direction, so pairing him with a reliable backup plan at tight end is sensible construction.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2025 he caught 58 passes on 82 targets for 713 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns. That is the entirety of his NFL history — the three-year aggregate is the same as the single-season line.
He is TE4 in the rankings with a projected 131.0 half-PPR points and a draft value of +10.6, placing him #57 overall in Tier 8.
The simulated season band runs from 75.8 points at the 10th percentile to 191.4 at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 141.5 points.
His market ADP is 52.0, which translates to pick 5.04 in a 12-team draft. Plan to spend a fifth-round pick if you want him on your roster.
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Beyond the rankings
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