#50 overall · NE · 144.2 projected half-PPR pts · +16.7 Draft Value · Market ADP 67.6
Rhamondre Stevenson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Rhamondre Stevenson has been the engine of the New England backfield for three consecutive seasons, and the counting stats back that up. Over the 2023-2025 stretch he averaged 164.3 rush attempts, 674.3 rush yards, and 6 rushing touchdowns per season, while adding 34.3 receptions and 250.3 receiving yards per year. The 2024 season was his clearest statement as a workhorse: 207 carries, 801 rush yards, and 7 rushing touchdowns. He followed that with 7 more rushing touchdowns in 2025 alongside a career-best 345 receiving yards, showing he can contribute in the passing game when the opportunity is there. His three-year average of 43 targets per season confirms he is a genuine part of the offense on third downs and in the flat. The draftValue sits at +16.7, meaning the projection puts him above replacement level at the running back position. At RB25 and #50 overall in Tier 8, he is a back with a real role and a real path to fantasy relevance.
What the model projects
The projection is 144.2 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. That number reflects a back who has averaged 164.3 rush attempts and 34.3 receptions per year over the past three seasons. His bye week falls in Week 11. The draftValue of +16.7 places him above the replacement-level baseline for running backs in a 12-team half-PPR format, landing him at RB25 and #50 overall.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 156 | 619 | 4 | 51 | 38 | 238 | — | 1 | 126.7 |
| 2024 | 207 | 801 | 7 | 41 | 33 | 168 | 1 | 7 | 155.4 |
| 2025 | 130 | 603 | 7 | 37 | 32 | 345 | 2 | 3 | 158.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 164.3 | 674.3 | 6 | 43 | 34.3 | 250.3 | 1 | 3.7 | 151.6 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which is consistent with a back whose workload and efficiency can shift considerably from year to year. In a bottom-10% season, the projection lands at 55.5 points. The 25th percentile is 99.2 points, and the median simulated season comes in at 151.6 points, slightly above the 144.2 point estimate. A strong season at the 75th percentile produces 198.3 points, and a top-10% outcome reaches 236.2 points. The gap between the floor and the ceiling is substantial: more than 180 points separates a bad season from a great one. Fumbles are a real part of the profile. Stevenson has lost three fumbles in each of the past two seasons, and his three-year average is 3.7 fumbles per year. That is a variable that can compress the upside in any given week or season. On the other side, his touchdown production has been consistent: 4, 7, and 7 rushing touchdowns across the last three years, with receiving touchdowns added in 2024 and 2025.
(bottom 10%)
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(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Stevenson sits at #50 overall and RB25 in Tier 8. The market is currently drafting him at pick 67.6 on average, which works out to the 6th round, 8th pick in a 12-team draft (based on a median across two platforms). That means drafters are spending a mid-to-late-round pick to secure him. Given his bye in Week 11, plan your roster depth accordingly. He is a back worth targeting as a volume-based contributor with a consistent role, and the 144.2-point projection gives him a clear path to returning value at that draft slot.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 144.2 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season from the outcome band is 151.6 points, slightly above that figure.
Over 2023-2025, Stevenson averaged 164.3 rush attempts, 674.3 rush yards, 34.3 receptions, and 250.3 receiving yards per season. His rush attempt totals were 156, 207, and 130 across those three years.
The simulated outcome band runs from 55.5 points at the 10th percentile to 236.2 points at the 90th percentile. The 25th percentile is 99.2 points and the 75th percentile is 198.3 points.
It is a real concern. Stevenson has fumbled 7, 3, and 3 times over the past three seasons, losing 1, 3, and 3 of those respectively. His three-year average is 3.7 fumbles and 2.3 fumbles lost per season.
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Beyond the rankings
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