#45 overall · DET · 153.0 projected half-PPR pts · +25.3 Draft Value · Market ADP 47.8
Jameson Williams — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jameson Williams has posted back-to-back 1,000-yard receiving seasons, hitting 1,001 yards on 91 targets in 2024 and following that with 1,117 yards on 102 targets in 2025. The touchdown production has been consistent too: seven receiving scores in each of those two years. Over the three-season window from 2023 through 2025, he averages 78.3 targets, 49 receptions, 824 receiving yards, and 5.3 receiving touchdowns per year. That trajectory is real, and the projection reflects it. His draft value sits at +25.3, meaning he projects meaningfully above replacement level at the wide receiver position. He lands at WR19 and #45 overall in Tier 6.
What the model projects
The projection for Williams is 153.0 half-PPR fantasy points. That is the headline number to anchor your planning around. He is WR19 and #45 overall, placed in Tier 6. His bye week is Week 6, which is worth noting for roster management purposes early in the season.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 42 | 24 | 354 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 68.3 |
| 2024 | 91 | 58 | 1001 | 7 | 11 | 61 | 1 | — | 183.2 |
| 2025 | 102 | 65 | 1117 | 7 | 6 | 12 | — | — | 187.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 78.3 | 49 | 824 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 34 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 146.3 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, and that is the defining feature of Williams as a fantasy asset. In a bad season, the bottom 10 percent of simulated outcomes lands at 75.6 points. The 25th percentile is 118.4 points. The median simulated season comes in at 163.6 points, slightly above the 153.0 point estimate. The 75th percentile reaches 197.4 points, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons finishes at 229.8 points. The gap between the floor and the ceiling, from 75.6 to 229.8, is substantial. A drafter taking Williams is accepting real downside risk in exchange for a ceiling that pushes into high-end WR2 territory.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Williams is #45 overall in the rankings. The market is currently drafting him at an average pick of 47.8, which works out to pick 4.12 in a 12-team snake draft. That means you are spending a fourth-round pick to land him. Given the width of his outcome band, the fourth round is a reasonable place to decide whether his upside fits your roster construction. If you want him, that is the round you need to be ready to spend. His Week 6 bye is early enough that you will want a plan at the position before the season starts.
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Questions drafters ask
Two straight 1,000-yard seasons back that up. He posted 1,001 receiving yards in 2024 and 1,117 in 2025, with seven receiving touchdowns in each year. The three-year average from 2023 through 2025 is 824 receiving yards and 5.3 receiving touchdowns per season, though 2023 was a limited year with only 354 yards and 42 targets.
The market average draft position is 47.8, which translates to pick 4.12 in a 12-team snake draft. Plan to spend a fourth-round pick if you want him.
The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons finishes at 75.6 half-PPR points. The 25th percentile is 118.4 points. That floor is real and worth factoring into how much roster capital you commit around him.
The top 10 percent of simulated outcomes reaches 229.8 half-PPR points, with the 75th percentile at 197.4. His 2025 actual line of 1,117 receiving yards and seven touchdowns on 102 targets gives a concrete reference point for what a strong season looks like in practice.
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Beyond the rankings
This page ranks the players. Nobody has ranked the people in your league.
Half your room drafts off a sheet like this one. The managers who cash every year aren't holding a better sheet; they have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written.
RotoAlpha reads it. Paste your past drafts, from any platform, and every manager in your league gets a profile: who reaches, who chases runs, who pays up for their own team. Then it sits with you on draft night with a plan that adapts pick by pick, knowing who is likely to reach next.
Names invented. Most long-running leagues have a table like this.